At least one of the few asteroids visited by humanity may return at some point in the future. Unfortunately, although we try to be as careful as possible when landing to collect samples from the asteroid, a visit from Bennu to Earth would mean hitting the planet with the force of 22 atomic bombs.
At this point, you may be wondering about the possibility of the asteroid actually hitting the Earth and why the date September 24, 2182 is often mentioned.
First, Bennu was chosen to be visited by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx due in large part to the excellent radar data and telescope observations we already have, which greatly reduces the risks. However, the asteroid is considered one of the most likely to hit Earth, and by studying its composition and orbit, NASA hopes to better understand the risk the object poses.
Previous estimates suggested a one in 2,700 chance of a collision with Bennu between 2175 and 2199. If this 500-meter asteroid hits Earth, it will release 1,200 megatons of energy, approximately 24 times the energy of the most powerful nuclear weapon ever made by humanity. While this is a non-negligible impact, it is much smaller than the 9.7 kilometer asteroid that brought about the end of the dinosaurs.
After observing Bennu closely for two years, NASA was able to better understand the asteroid’s future orbit and reduce the likelihood of a future collision with Earth.
“The OSIRIS-REx data give us much more precise information, we can test the limits of our models and calculate with very high precision the future orbit of Bennu until 2135,” study lead author Davide Farnocchia of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) said in a statement and added: “We have never modeled the orbit of an asteroid with this precision before.”
Critical date: September 24, 2182
Unfortunately, this odds shifted slightly in favor of a collision, and by 2300 the odds of collision had increased to approximately 1 in 1,750. The estimated date when the orbits will be closest and the impact is most likely was determined as September 24, 2182. According to NASA, the chance of impact on this date is one in 2,700; that is, around 0.037 percent. Although it may seem unreasonable for this probability to be lower, the probability of the event changing as the number of situations increases because it has a chance of occurring.
“Although it has a very low chance of hitting Earth, Bennu remains one of the two most dangerous known asteroids in our solar system, along with another asteroid called 1950 DA,” NASA says.
NASA and other observatories follow the orbits of objects discovered in the Solar System, paying particular attention to “Near-Earth Objects” (NEOs) measuring 140 meters and larger that could cause destruction when they cross paths with Earth. According to NASA, no known asteroid larger than 140 meters is likely to hit Earth within the next 100 years.
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