A woman named Dorothy Martin, living in the USA, prophesied that at the dawn of 21 December 1954, aliens would bring the end of the world, and that those who believed in her would escape this flood, thanks to a UFO that would come from the planet Clarion on the night of 20 December and take them into space.
His cult called “Seekers” soon became known. His followers immediately placed advertisements in newspapers and on the radio and tried to warn people. Those who believed in the prophecy quit their jobs and sold all their assets. He even left wives who did not share his beliefs. The followers firmly believed in everything the leader said, no matter how absurd.
About 50 people gather. Midnight passes, but neither the apocalypse nor the aliens make a sound. What happened when the prophecy didn’t come true? Nothing.
When nothing happens, small grunts begin. At that time, Dorothy Martin shuts herself in the kitchen, but when she comes back into the living room a little later, she is smiling.
“I’ve spoken to the Clarionians again,” he says to the disgruntled group, “they’ve given Earth and us another chance, now we must go out and work harder, convince more people of the inevitability of extinction, and recruit them into our ranks.” This statement puts those waiting in the hall at ease, because Now they have something new to believe in.
The disciples, who had abandoned their jobs, wives, and properties, clung to their beliefs more tightly, let alone rebelling. Their sect had saved the world!
Their current mission was to warn humanity and prevent the same disaster from happening again. The fact that the prophecy could not be proven to be true did not damage the faith of those who believed in it. On the contrary, he further consolidated their beliefs and prompted the group to seek new members.
What Dorothy Martin and her supporters didn’t know was the existence of the three doctoral students who had infiltrated them that night. Three social psychologists, Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter, had learned of the existence of the group from a newspaper article and decided to investigate this issue. Pretending to be disciples, they infiltrated the sect.
The researchers, who wrote their observations in their book “When the Prophecy Fails”, tried to explain this situation with the Cognitive Dissonance Theory.
According to this theory, people act in a mental balance. A mismatch between one’s understandings leads to mental stress and restlessness.
According to the researchers, the person will try to relieve this discomfort, similarly, he will avoid situations or information that will increase this stress.
The magnitude of the stress created by conflicting insights will also vary according to the importance and rate of these insights. Studies reveal that cognitive dissonance arises especially when a person’s self-belief (such as self-esteem, thinking he is intelligent) and his actions are inconsistent, and that people generally resolve this conflict by preserving their self-belief. In the Seekers cult, the disciples’ anticipation of the UFO and the flood was based on faith, not evidence.
It was also a sign of faith that they did not consider the failure of the prophecy to be in conflict with their own beliefs.
So the faith of the followers was not based on evidence but on their dedication to Dorothy; they resolved their cognitive conflicts by reinforcing their belief in him, not by thinking that they had made a mistake by attaching to him.
Particularly when it comes to blindly held beliefs, judgments, or charismatic leaders, commitment is so dominant that when reality conflicts with it, it is easier to distort reality, no matter how absurd, to reduce psychological tension and conflict.
Totalitarian-populist politics, which spread like an epidemic in the world and is much more dangerous than Covid, and the conspiracy theories that feed it are a good example of this situation.
The more bitter the facts and the sharper the contradiction, the more the loyalty of the masses falling in love with the totalitarian populist leader increases.
In April 1945, as the Red Army took control of the suburbs of Berlin, Hitler was awarding boy soldiers fighting the Soviet army with medals for their achievements and bravery, and ordering his generals to attack. There were still masses of people who believed in him.
The congress raid in the USA after Trump lost the election showed how effective this phenomenon can be even in places where democracy and freedoms are institutionalized.
At the very least, therein lies the importance of young people’s rationalization and internalization of universal values.
Sources: Economist İbrahim M. Turhan, Hitit University Res. See. Emre Özyerden
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