“Where Are the Aliens?” Answer: The Dark Forest Theory

Although some signals from outer space excite humanity from time to time, we have not yet reached any substantial evidence. It is shown as the most accepted possibility that there may not be creatures intelligent enough to decode the signals we have sent into space for decades, or that the signals may not have gone far enough to reach them. Even if the signals arrived, it is known that it will take decades for them to decipher these messages and reply to us.

According to the Dark Forest Theory, it is in our best interest not to receive a response to our signals or to have our messages not reach them. Okay but why?

In order to better understand the subject; It is worth mentioning the following paragraph in the “Dark Forest”, the second book in the science fiction “History of the World” trilogy, written by Liu Cixin:

“The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter lurking like a ghost among the trees, gently pushing aside the branches in front of him and trying to move forward without making a sound. Even breathing is carefully done. The hunter has to be careful as there are invisible hunters like him all over the forest. If he finds another creature – another a hunter, an angel or a demon, a defenseless baby or a struggling old man, a fairy or a demigod – there is only one thing he can do: open fire and destroy them. Hell in this forest is other people. It is an eternal threat that all life forms that inhabit it will quickly disappear from history. This is the picture of cosmic civilization. This is the explanation of the Fermi Paradox.”

What do we do when we are wandering around in a mysterious place full of dangers when we encounter a stranger?

Should we trust this stranger whose tongue and intent we do not even know, or should we eliminate him before he takes action to protect our lives? Even if the two civilizations could communicate, there would be great distances to be overcome, both physically and culturally and linguistically. The argument in the novel is based on this; All living organisms always want to survive.

Therefore, organisms either prefer to hide in the dark forest or want to destroy the other side for their own safety in an encounter. This theory suggests that we may not be able to communicate with alien civilizations, perhaps because they prefer to hide in the dark forest (the universe).

The Dark Forest Theory mentioned in the novel actually tries to answer the famous Fermi Paradox, as mentioned at the end of the quote you read above.

The Fermi Paradox expresses the contradiction between the high probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, but the absence of any evidence or contact to confirm it. Physicist Enrico Fermi, who introduced the paradox, states that although alien life is likely to exist, we cannot communicate with them due to the current conditions and obstacles.

According to the Drake Equation, which has an important place in the search for extraterrestrial life; Statistically, there should be at least 10,000 alien civilizations, with 20 of them somewhere near us.

In 1961, radio astronomer Franke Drake tried to calculate/estimate the number of civilizations that should be in our Milky Way Galaxy, taking into account many factors that may play a role in the development of civilizations, and these numbers were calculated. reached.

This equation includes the following factors:

• N the number of civilizations we can hope to communicate with
• R* Annual rate of star formation in our galaxy
• fp How many of these stars of which have planets
• ne Average number of habitable planets per star with planets
• fl Number of planets between these planets where there is some form of habitable environment
• fi This how many of the habitable planets have intelligent life
• fc Segment from such civilizations that can leave detectable signals about their presence in space
• L Duration of detectable signal broadcast in space by such civilization

Is the Dark Forest Theory a logical thought or a paranoia?

Although the theory seems like paranoia, we have been seeing examples of “destroying each other due to insecurity” for centuries on Earth. This subject is frequently mentioned in post-apocalyptic films. With the collapse of civilization, people who started to act alone try to kill each other when they meet a different person. As the survival instinct predominates, the other party’s life becomes insignificant.

We have been sending messages to the universe for nearly a century. But what if they are detected by a dangerous alien civilization?

The Solar System is relatively young compared to the rest of the universe. Therefore, aliens on other habitable planets may have more advanced technology than us, as they will be more advantageous in terms of time. With the effect of this situation, it seems more likely that they will reach us before we can reach alien civilizations.

Also, even if our technology is behind them, they may want to smash the snake’s head when they are young, thinking that we will be a danger to them one day because we are developing so fast.

Stephen Hawking and dozens of scientists emphasized that this is a big risk.

Let’s think of our Earth as a house in a dark forest. A few people in the house are trying to show us our place by holding a lantern out the window, regardless of whether the majority will allow it or not. But what if we attract the attention of malicious people?

This is why there are reactions against a group of people who make decisions on behalf of billions of people on the planet. Scientists, including people like Elon Musk, started a petition to prevent the sharing of signals sent to space that could cause our location to be detected.

In summary, it can be said that the Dark Forest Theory presents a logical argument.

Even if alien civilizations intercept the signals we send them, they may prefer to hide because they have not yet understood what we are. Maybe we should hide our existence by not revealing our existence to the universe by signals, it may be safer to stay in the dark in the forest!

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6