When will the Altcoins rise?

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When will the Altcoins rise?

My friends, hello to all of you. There is a question that I take under almost every tweet in X: ne What will happen to these subcoins, when will it rise? ”

My friends, the fate of the Altcoins depends on the fate of inflation in the United States, not technical analysis and lines.

Inflation should decrease so that interest rates, interests should be descended – very simply and without confusing your head – money becomes abundant and all you expect.

So “When will the Altcoins rise?” The question is not with lines, but a question to be answered by the cycles of the economy.

So what are these cycles?

The economy is managed by three basic indicators: the amount of money, inflation and interest rates.

These three indicators are the main elements in which central banks intervene and determine the ups and downs of the markets. So if we make the right moves at the right time, we can catch what is on the market and protect our profits. Or we can understand with these indicators when it will rise and fall to the market and the market.

In this article, I will explain what each indicator works, how it is effective in crisis periods, and ultimately two important assets such as S&P 500 and Bitcoin are affected by these cycles. Later, I will tell you when I am waiting for a promotion in Altcoins. Please read every part carefully.

Amount of money

First of all, let’s look at the amount of money. One of the most important tools that the central banks hold and the power to direct the economy is to print money.

Press and withdrawal of money:

  • Monetary expansion: If the economy is going through bad days, central banks try to revive the economy by putting new money into the market. This has positive effects such as the rise of stock exchanges, the fall of unemployment and the increase in the total money in people’s pockets.
  • Monetary tightening: On the contrary, money is withdrawn from the market when the economy is overheating or when the inflation feels in danger. This reduces the amount of money and provides control of inflation.

Expression with examples:

  • 2008 Mortgage crisis & COVID Process: In 2008, after the Mortgage crisis and during the COVID epidemic, the US Federal Reserve (FED) went to the huge money printing to save the economy. On the other hand, we tried to balance the markets with withdrawal transactions in 2017 and 2022.

In this way, we can say that money printing and withdrawing money has a direct impact on the general activity of the economy. In other words, it is one of our most important tools to manage the amount of money, to stand up or to cool the economy.

Inflation – Raising rapidly prices

Another basic indicator is inflation. In short, inflation shows how much goods and service prices increase. The trick is that money printing can trigger inflation. How?

Basic Dynamics:

  • If you press money, inflation increases: If more money enters the economy, consumer demand increases. This attracts the prices of goods and services.
  • Damages of inflation: Increased inflation decreases the purchasing power of the households, especially the households. So, the value of the money in our pocket decreases.

Intervention Methods:

  • Interest hike and withdrawal: Central banks raise interest rates or go to withdraw money from the market to control inflation. Thus, excessive demand is slowed down and prices try to achieve balance.

Example from real life:

  • After 2008 and COVID process: After the money published in 2008, inflation rose, and a similar situation after COVID took place. Therefore, the Fed first tried to revive the economy by reducing interest rates, then increased interest rates for the control of inflation.

In summary, inflation is like the “heat indicator ın of the economy. In other words, no matter how much money in the economy, inflation rises at that rate. Therefore, central banks meticulously intervene to control inflation.

Interests – Cost of Money

The third basic indicator is interest. Interest is the cost of the money, ie the cost of borrowing. Changes in interest rates are directly effective on economic growth and investment.

Role of Interest:

  • Low interest, easy borrowing: When interest rates decrease, companies and individuals increase their investments by using cheaper loans. This leads to an increase in economic growth and employment.
  • High interest, slowdown: In the opposite case, the rise of interest rates makes borrowing expensive, investment and consumption slows down. This creates the effect of cooling the economy.

Interest policies in times of crisis:

  • 2008 and COVID Periods: After the Mortgage crisis and during the COVID period, the Fed reduced the Fed interest to prevent economic recession; However, when the inflation rose, it changed this policy and increased interest rates.

Impact on the Market:

  • As the fall of interest rates creates easy credit conditions in the market, stock indices such as S&P 500 increase, while the increase in interest rates slows down the market and may cause a decrease.

In short, interest rates are like both the lifeblood and the balance element of the economy. The control of interest rates is vital to establish a subtle balance between economic growth and inflation.

Markets: S&P 500 and Bitcoin’s dance with loops

Now, with the three basic indicators we have examined above, let’s look at how the markets are affected. I will consider how both the traditional financial market S&P 500 and Bitcoin were affected.

S&P 500 – Pulse of the classic market

The beginning in crisis periods:

  • In mid -2007, when the Mortgage crisis broke out, the markets began to fall. This decrease led to the Fed’s move to lower interest rates.
  • Lehman Brothers’ sinking in 2008 caused the markets to be shaken. Although the money was started, the intervention was a little late.

Recovery process:

  • In February 2009, a huge money was printed and the S&P 500 began to recover. In other words, as long as there was plenty of money in the market, the index tend to rise.
  • However, after the money printing inflation increased, Fed started to increase interest rates after 2015. During this period, S&P 500 was either horizontal or fell.

Effect of Political and Economic Factors:

  • The fall of the S&P 500 brought about pre -election political pressures. In some periods, political interventions also led the money printing to recover the markets.
  • In the COVID crisis, the market, which was first supported by interest rate cuts and money printing, was recovered, while the index fell again with interest rates after the increase in inflation.

In general, the S&P 500 index rises with the positive effects of money printing and low interest rates, while monetary tightening and interest rate hikes are experiencing the pressure of the decline. In other words, the policies of the central banks have a direct impact on S&P 500.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin was not yet on stage in the 2008 mortgage crisis. But the monetary policy caused by the crisis emerged as an alternative to the gap. Bitcoin also has its own dynamics:

First Period and Maturation:

  • In the early years of Bitcoin, the market value was low and the transaction volume was low. Therefore, the impact of monetary policies was less prominent than classical beings.
  • But since 2017, Bitcoin has also started to increase market maturity and is now influenced by economic cycles.

CYPPORTURAL INTEACIES:

  • In 2017, while Bitcoin summit, the Fed’s interest rate hike and monetary tightening policies came into play. This caused sharp decreases in Bitcoin.
  • In 2019, when interest rates began to fall, Bitcoin gave signals of recovery.
  • Bitcoin was also rising with the interest rate reduction and giant money printing during the COVID epidemic period. However, inflation expectations and subsequent interest rate hikes led to a decrease in Bitcoin’s peak.
  • As of 2023, Bitcoin has risen again with the expectations that the interest rate hike ended, while in recent months, “inflation is high, low unemployment low” and declined from the summit levels.

Extra Factors:

  • Bitcoin’s price dynamics Luna collapse, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) elements such as FTX scandal were also effective.
  • In general, however, Bitcoin’s market began to parallel with monetary policies and macroeconomic indicators.

In summary, even though Bitcoin initially acts with its own rules, it is now in compliance with economic cycles and the Central Bank policies. In other words, the effects of money printing, inflation and interest in both the classical markets and in the digital world have become inevitable.

Conclusion

The essence of the summary I am trying to explain is that the three basic indicators in the economy – the amount of money, inflation and interest rates – almost affect each other in a cycle. We can summarize as follows:

  • MONEY PRINTING: Money printing applied to revive the economy attracts the markets in the short term. But this can trigger inflation.
  • Inflation: The increase in money printing increases goods and service prices. Thus, the purchasing power of the households decreases and the central banks are forced to intervene.
  • Interest Policies: Interest Tools that determine economic growth and the direction of investment. While investments increase in low interest periods, high interest periods slow the economy.

These three indicators determine how to behave, especially during crisis periods. For example, in the challenging periods such as the 2008 Mortgage crisis and COVID epidemic, central banks came into play and first reduced interest rates, then went to the interest rate hike for inflation control.

In addition, these cycles directly affect both the traditional financial market S&P 500 and Bitcoin, the favorite of the world of digital assets. While the S&P 500 money printing and low interest rates, it declined during monetary tightening periods. Although Bitcoin initially acted with its own dynamics, it followed a course in compatible with the Central Bank policies and macroeconomic data.

In summary, in order to understand what is happening in the economy, it is necessary to closely monitor the monetary policies of the central banks and the fluctuation of inflation and the fluctuation of interest rates. Our answer is not on the lines, but in the economy itself.

So what’s the situation right now?

My friends, inflation in the United States made a bottom in September and then began to increase. Although Trump’s passing into the seat and his pro-cippto policies, crypto currencies hit high inflation markets, even if the crypto currencies progressed for a while. And moreover, with the PPI data, the prices of ISM Production and Service Purchasing Managers’ Index comes great jumps. In other words, producer costs are increasing and more inflation may be on the road.

Table 1: US inflation data (Trading Economics, 2025)

Recently, Trump began to put customs duties on other countries, which was thought to increase inflation in the first place (I think it will be in the long term), negatively affected.

But we see Bloomberg titles that the market has expected much higher taxes and so high taxes did not come. As such, the market is now and we see this from the Bloomberg headlines.

I explained that this will be the case with the “theory of decreasing returns” on my X page. In other words, when the same news is released in the same environment in the same environment, the effect of the posts after the first is decreasing.

In other words, the impact of customs duty news will continue to decrease and will not affect the market after a certain place. But of course, if a new tax comes to a new and important country, that situation is another. This situation is not “the same news ,, there is another news. Let me tell you.

Visual 1: Bloomberg titles (Bloomberg, 2025)

On the other hand, Trump said at the World Economic Forum “Fed should download interest”. In this case, as I explained above, the money in the market will become abundant and even from the descent of market interest rates, even after the possibility of downloading interest rates (clue for you: What is the probability of interest cuts from Polymarket. You will see that the rising and the Altcoins are also following the market.

But inflation will create an even more inflationary environment, such as interest rates and Trump’s incentives, deregulation and tax cuts (such as federal income tax) will create an even more inflationary environment, and the FED will start to talk in the minval that we need to increase interest rates. My model Fırat Lux Growth Projections envisaged the crypto markets in October-December and the decline will begin.

Already, according to CME data, there is a possibility of increasing interest rate hike, albeit 1 percent in July 2026. So people think that inflation could increase that time. I think this calendar will be attracted forward with Trump’s policies.

Table 2: CME Interest Data (CME, 2025)

Conclusion

In other words, the Altcoin bull that you all expect without inflation without falling or downloading interest rates with Trump printing is difficult.

If the pressures give results, interest rate cuts may start between March and May. At this time, the bull can be exacerbated again. This fits both the cycles of the economy, the character of Trump and my mathematics models.

Inflation, which started with interest rate reduction news (I described it as polymarket tracking) may end with the rise of inflation.

Thank you for reading it, see you next week.

Resources

Trump’s Recipe Are A Mystery, So Investors Keep Buying Stocks. (2025, February 15). Bloomberg. Retrieved February 16, 2025, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-16/trump-s-tariffs-are-a-mysterry-so-investors-keep-buying-stocks?srnd = Phx-Markets

CME Fedwatch – CME Group. (2025). https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-Rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Trading Economics. (2025). United States Inflation Rate. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi