The crypto market has seen some bullishness over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin price is up 2.57% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $20,161. Ethereum has also gained 1.8% in the last 24 hours, passing $1,352. However, experts predict that the upward movement will not last long. Because BTC price continues to stay in a downtrend in the long run, even though it makes small gains. In this context, 4 analysts shared the dates they thought the BTC drop would end.
“Bitcoin bear cycle complete”
Yassine Elmadjra, analyst at American investment management firm Ark Invest, made the first forecast. According to him, the cryptocurrency market gives interesting results in the realized profit and loss table of BTC. The analyst says that this metric shows that Bitcoin has completed the current bear cycle. Meanwhile, the metric calculates the net profit and loss size incurred by all holders holding their cryptocurrencies at a loss.
Accordingly, BTC’s short-term cost base has fallen below its long-term cost base for the fourth time in history. According to Elmadjra, this is another indication that the market has likely reached a cyclical bottom. For now, Bitcoin price is stuck between $19,000, which represents the investor cost base, and $23,500, the 200-day weekly moving average. There is currently a struggle between token holders and the unfavorable macroeconomic environment.
“BTC accumulation is at the top of the last 7 years”
Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant made another prediction based on Bitcoin savings. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of the firm, BTC has a metric reminiscent of previous bear market bottoms. Accordingly, Ju states that the accumulation level of BTC has reached the highest level in the last 7 years. Ju said:
“BTCs that have been held for more than 6 months now make up 74% of the realized supply. Recent lows in 2019 and 2015 were 70% and 77%, respectively. Imagine buying Bitcoin and doing nothing for six months. You can imagine how difficult it was.”
“New data reveals amount of Bitcoin liquidity liquidations”
According to CryptoQuant open interest data, the Bitcoin derivatives market may be ready for a liquidation phase. The analysis shows that if the BTC price deviates enough from current levels, long and short-term options traders may suffer a bit. CryptoQuant says this concern arose after BTC hit the low of (about) $17,500 in June. Accordingly, open positions have been rising since the bottom level.
Since then, Bitcoin price has been trading between the roughly $22,000 high and the $18.00 low. This range prevents major liquidations from happening. There have been only three significant hourly liquidations in the last period. One of them involved BTC open liquidation worth $5.8 million. Now, however, BTC price could break out of this range and liquidations could increase. The analyst wrote:
“The price has been changing a lot lately for these big liquidations to happen. This is something to consider. With open interest formation, if the price deviates far enough from this range, the probability of a large liquidation is high.”
“The crypto market is preparing for a new correction”
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe predicts that the US dollar is ready for a rally. As we have reported as Kriptokoin.com, the US dollar and Bitcoin have an inverse correlation. So a rally in the dollar could lead to a correction in the entire cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, new US unemployment data will be released on October 7th, which will affect the market. Poppe is betting that the data will look bad and have a bad effect on the market.
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