Bitcoin prediction made by analyst Akash Girimath is being scrutinized by Kriptokoin.com in this article. Bitcoin price is showing a short-term bullish outlook that could push it towards $40,000. This optimism could be a bull trap before BTC hits $30,000 or lower. A daily candlestick above $52,000 will invalidate the bearish thesis and potentially start an uptrend.
What does the analyst’s Bitcoin forecast say?
Bitcoin price has seen a rapid rise in buyers over the past two days. This bullish trend will likely continue as BTC retests a critical psychological level and lures buyers into a bull trap. Investors need to be wary of a reversal that sends major crypto in a queue. Bitcoin price attracts bulls before the downfall begins. Bitcoin price dropped in January and bottomed around the weekly support level at $34,752. After retesting this barrier several times, BTC has recovered and entered an uptrend that has seen a 16% gain so far.
While this minor uptrend has given altcoins space and momentum to explode, it appears to be a trap used by the bears to lure uninformed buyers before sending the asset crash. This setup is known as a bull trap, and the reason investors expect a collapse is because a bearish divergence has formed. BTC price action created two highs on September 7, 2021 and November 10, 2021, creating the illusion of an uptrend. The troughs between these peaks created a demand zone stretching from $40,794 to $44,387. However, on January 21, BTC cut through this demand zone, turning it into a bearish trend, leaving many holders inundated. Therefore, retesting this breaker could trigger a massive selling pressure that crashes the Bitcoin price.
In some cases, the major crypto could retest the $43,000 level, which is the combination of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a weekly resistance barrier, says the analyst’s Bitcoin prediction. The rejection is plausible as BTC continues to rise and approaches the lower limit of the aforementioned breaker at $40,794. Adding confidence to this outlook is the sell-side liquidity below the $29,100 weekly support level. All in all, the technical perspective suggests that a move to $30,000 or lower is likely for Bitcoin price in the coming days. The spike in daily active addresses from January 31 further supports the short-term bullish outlook seen in Bitcoin price. As of this writing, the daily active address count was well above the 30-day moving average of 891,000.
While things look good from the short-term view, IntoTheBlock’s Global Money In/Exit (GIOM) pattern shows that Bitcoin price is close to retesting a major resistance barrier. Therefore, any increase in buying pressure that pushes the Bitcoin price into the aforementioned range will most likely be met with selling pressure from owners trying to reach the breakeven. Also, the support level is thinning significantly after $37,096, further crediting the bearish thesis. The final nail in the bulls’ coffin is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score model. This on-chain metric is used to assess whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued, by dividing the difference between market value and realized market value by the standard deviation of market value.
Takes MVRV metrics to a new level in identifying historical areas of fair value, oversold or overbought. The red band indicates overbought and is usually where the bull moves up and down. However, green value indicates oversold and is where long-term holders tend to accumulate. BTC currently has a Z-score of 1.09 MVRV, which is well above the oversold band, indicating that no further downside moves are out of the question. The bullish regime will only be seen after BTC breaks above $52,000. In such a case, investors can expect Bitcoin price to continue this trend and break the psychological barrier of $60,000.
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