Bitcoin (BTC) price showed a minor rebound, triggering a minor spike prematurely. Therefore, investors can wait for BTC to slide lower and gather liquidity below a significant level before triggering a full-blown impulse move. As Kriptokoin.com, we report weekly Bitcoin price analysis and expected levels.
Bitcoin price needs to complete its downside target
Bitcoin price is crossing an ascending parallel channel created by combining three high lows and two high highs formed since Jan 24. The last two retests of the pattern’s lower trendline led to a bounce to the upper bound. The third test is different from the ones that came before it due to the slow downtrend. Moreover, the downtrend that pushed Bitcoin price from $48,189 to $37,702 failed to push it below the equal lows formed around $37,699. Therefore, traders should wait for a downside move that gathers liquidity before pushing higher. A sweep below $37,699 would be the trigger, pushing BTC up 11 percent to retest the supply zone of $42,125 to $43,766. Interestingly, this level also coincides with the 200-day SMA, making it a place where a tough resistance and local top can form. Only a daily candlestick above $43,766 will allow Bitcoin price to rise to $45,510. This move represents a 20 percent rise.
Supporting this short-term drop in Bitcoin price is the 30-day Market Value at Realized Value (MVRV) indicator. This indicator is used to measure the average profit/loss of traders who bought BTC in the last month. Any value between -10 percent and -15 percent is called the “zone of opportunity” as short-term owners are at a loss and are less likely to sell as long-term owners accumulate. Therefore, a local base usually forms around these levels. However, the index for BTC is hovering around -7.1 percent, which is just above the initial local base at -11 percent. So, there is a good chance for Bitcoin price to drop to these levels again, which aligns well with the technically-explained outlook.
Wallet spike fuels bullish prospects
While this small drop appears to be bearish, whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have risen from 2,044 to 2,193 since Feb. 24 . This spike in the number of wallets holding massive amounts of BTC is an indication that these investors are expecting a spike in the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, the long-term outlook for BTC remains slightly bullish, which is in line with the technical outlook’s target of $45,510.
Regardless of short-term bearish prospects, the leading cryptocurrency is positioned for trend reversal. However, if the bears take control and push BTC down, causing the daily candlestick to close below the crucial level of $34,752, it will create a lower bottom and invalidate the bullish thesis. In this case, BTC market makers can pull BTC to collect the sell stops existing below the $30,000 level.
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