We’ve heard a lot about global warming over the years. Scientists have repeatedly said all humanity that the world is about to enter an irreversible path. How often do we listen to these warnings? Now get your cup of coffee ready, because there are things you need to know about the future of coffee.
When we struggled to get up in the morning to go to work or school, coffee has always given us the greatest support. At least for me, the phrase “come on, get up, have a cup of coffee and wake up” has been something that is often reminded of me. “What does all this have to do with global warming?” You can say, but unfortunately, the effects of global warming affect coffee like many other things.
We may not find coffee in the near future due to global warming.
Global warming has become the present and future of our world. We are now witnessing this event, which we only heard about in the past. Global warming is in our lives when we say untimely hot and cold, extreme natural disasters.
By 2050, global warming will be even more devastating. Moreover, this warming is not experienced equally all over the world. Some areas will be much drier. As a result, the agricultural sector must also undergo a transformation. One of the agricultural lands that global warming will make arid will be the lands where coffee production is made.
4 of the 5 largest coffee producers in the world will lose a large part of their coffee production area by 2050.
Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Indonesia, the world’s 4 largest coffee producing countries; As a result of global warming, they will lose a large part of their coffee production by 2050. Ethiopia, which is only the 5th largest producing country, is expected to preserve most of its lands suitable for coffee cultivation.
The Arabica species, which we can call the raw material of coffee, which accounts for 60-80 percent of all production, is on the verge of extinction.
You may have heard our elders say, Where is the taste of that old food? And when we come to the 2050s, we will probably say these words for coffee. Because the Arabica type, which is called high quality in terms of taste and is indispensable for real coffee gourmets with that delicious coffee smell, is one of the types that are most affected by global warming.
Arabica coffee is produced efficiently in the cool, high-altitude tropics with temperatures between 18-23 degrees Celsius. Higher temperature or drier conditions cause this coffee to drop significantly in yield.
Production of the Arabica strain is declining rapidly.
Arabica is an extremely fragile species, especially to unstable temperatures. This fragility means that Arabica will be as valuable as gold for years to come. This species, which we consume constantly, is still feeling the effects of global warming. Last year, Brazil, one of the world’s top coffee producing countries, experienced one of the worst droughts in history. This, in turn, reduced coffee production by a third, driving up coffee prices globally. This fragile Arabica strain will be replaced by a more durable but less flavorful type of coffee called Robusta.
The era of Robusta, which is much more resistant to harsh conditions, begins.
Against the fragility of Arabica coffee, farmers have started to turn to Robusta in recent years. Robusta, which is a lower type of coffee than Arabica, is more resistant than Arabica in many things from low temperatures to high temperatures. Moreover, Robusta is more resistant to insects and diseases. Along with all this, it matures much faster than Arabica.
An effort is made to create a hybrid strain by combining the taste of Arabica and the durability of Robusta.
Maybe there is a way to save the coffee. In the 1960s, a research team led by the National Federation of Coffee Growers in Colombia tried to grow a flavorful yet durable type of coffee by transferring the aroma of Arabica to Robusta.
Known as Cenicafe, this hybrid strain was first developed in the 1980s. The Castillo variety of this hybrid was introduced in 2005. Researchers who developed the seed against dangers such as rust fungus produced Canicafe 1 variety in 2015. It seems that Arabica will be one of the first victims of global warming. We humans are trying to breed new species against it.
Even the Robusta strain can continue coffee production up to a certain point.
If we don’t do something about global warming, Robusta will experience a similar fate to Arabica. Climate experts say the temperature will continue to rise each year, creating periods of extreme rain and drought. This makes many parameters such as temperature, light, humidity levels needed to produce coffee applicable in a much more limited area.
According to experts, areas suitable for growing coffee could be reduced by as much as 60 percent by 2050 due to rising temperatures.
This speed brings with it other fears. If coffee production decreases by this much by 2050, what kind of scenario will await us when we come to 2100? Maybe we can still have hope.
Can coffee farming resist global warming?
Coffee is our red line. For this reason, there is still a way for coffee to survive. The production of coffee, which is currently grown at 1200 meters above sea level, is expected to increase to 1600 meters by the 2050s. In this regard, more resistant species are being tried to be produced.
I hope it will not be too late when we see that global warming is destroying the whole Earth and start doing something about it. Considering that we are at a point of no return even now, all countries should unite more and return from this loss. So, do you imagine a world without coffee?
Sources: Science Direct, National Geographic, iadb, TIME
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