VanEck predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new peak towards the end of 2024. Meanwhile, according to his prediction, Binance, the largest crypto exchange, will lose its place at the top. There will be a recession in the USA. New stablecoin market cap peaks will be seen. And more..
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Binance, Artificial Intelligence and more…
Recession in the USA and record fund flow to Bitcoin ETFs!
VanEck made 15 crypto predictions on December 8, including price predictions for 2024, the timing of the spot Bitcoin ETF launch, the impact of Bitcoin’s halving, and the dominant emerging crypto platforms. VanEck predicts that BTC will reach an all-time high in late 2024 against the backdrop of the long-feared US recession and regulatory changes after the next US presidential election.
https://twitter.com/vaneck_us/status/1732811502602559912
VanEck is among several firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity, vying for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund and a spot Ethereum ETF. The asset manager is confident that the first spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the first quarter. However, he also makes a gloomy forecast for the US economy:
The US recession will finally come, but so will the first spot Bitcoin ETFs. More than $2.4 billion will flow into these ETFs in Q1 2024 to support Bitcoin’s price.
Leading crypto will reach ATH level in the last quarter!
The firm also predicts that the halving, which will take place in 2024, “will cause minimal market disruption.” However, he states that there will be an increase in prices after the halving. VanEck expects Bitcoin to reach an all-time high in Q4 2024. He predicts that this “may be due to political events and regulatory changes following the US presidential elections.” Meanwhile, the date of the US presidential elections is November 5, 2024.
Leading altcoin Ethereum will not be able to surpass leading crypto Bitcoin
The firm also predicts that Ether will not overtake Bitcoin in 2024. However, he says it will still outperform big tech stocks. In this context, VanEck makes the following statement:
As in past cycles, Bitcoin will lead the market higher. Additionally, value will flow into smaller tokens immediately after the halving. ETH will not start outperforming Bitcoin until after the halving. It may perform better throughout the year, but there will be no ‘reversal’.
ETH/BTC price ratio. Source: VanEckSolana will push Ethereum!
Despite this, he predicts that Ether’s market share will be challenged by other smart contract platforms such as Solana, which have “less uncertainty surrounding the scalability roadmap.” Ethereum is the current industry standard for smart contracts, with a market cap of $285 billion. Solana is a rival high-throughput blockchain with a market cap of $30 billion. However, he notes that Ethereum layer-2 networks will capture the majority of EVM-compatible locked total value and transaction volume after the EIP-4844 scaling update is implemented.
Decentralization will undermine AI monopolies
Earlier this week, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) also made various predictions in its Big Ideas in Tech for 2024 report published on December 6. However, the focus has been more on artificial intelligence and decentralization. a16z is one of the industry’s largest venture capital firms, investing millions in Web3 startups every year. According to the VC firm, crypto will help bring AI out of the hands of a few tech giants like OpenAI, Google and Meta and into the broader Web3 community.
Just a few things we're excited for in crypto (2024):
→ Entering a new era of decentralization
→ Resetting the UX of the future
→The rise of the modular tech stack
→ AI + blockchains come together
→ Play to earn becomes play and earn
→ When AI becomes the gamemaker,… pic.twitter.com/fiL4Eahwuy— a16z crypto (@a16zcrypto) December 6, 2023
He notes that their decentralized networks offset centralized AI models that require massive resources that only tech giants currently have access to. However, crypto networks could enable permissionless markets where anyone can contribute computing power and data to train large language models, and there will be more of this in 2024.
Binance will lose its leadership position!
VanEck also says competitors like Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget will vie for leadership. For this reason, Binance, the largest crypto exchange, is at risk of losing its leadership position. In this regard, VanEck predicts that the Binance exchange will lose its top position. As you follow from Kriptokoin.com, Binance has recently been subject to regulatory pressures around the world. Binance had to make a $4 billion settlement with the US Department of Justice. Then its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, a highly influential industry leader, stepped down.
Other predictions
Meanwhile, VanEck predicts stablecoin market value will reach $200 billion. Moreover, he predicts that Circle’s USDC will make a comeback. He expects spot trading volumes of decentralized exchanges to reach a new peak. He also predicts that KYC-compliant DeFi platforms will likely surpass non-KYC ones.
According to VanEck, KYC-enabled and walled garden apps, such as those using the Ethereum Attestation Service or Uniswap Hooks, will gain significant traction by approaching or even surpassing non-KYC apps in user base and fees.
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