Bitcoin price pulled back briefly following US hyperinflation data. However, the recovery seen in BTC, SHIB and other altcoins shows that buyers are buying the dip. What are the key levels in Bitcoin and the main altcoins that can stop the decline? To find out, crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay analyzes the 10 biggest cryptocurrencies.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, the US CPI rose to 9.1% in June, exceeding the expectations for an annual increase of 8.8%. Currently, Fed funds futures point to an 81bps rate hike for July, suggesting some respondents are expecting a 100bps increase.
Several on-chain indicators point to a possible bottom for Bitcoin (BTC). But analysts at market intelligence firm Glassnode aren’t convinced that the drop has been made. In the ‘On-Chain Weekly’ report dated July 11, analysts say the market may need to drop further “to fully test investor determination and allow the market to form a resilient bottom”.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance / Source: Coin360Continuing the short-term bearish trend, strategists are confident in their long-term prospects. CoinShares chief strategy officer Meltem Demirors told CNBC that Bitcoin could prolong its ‘downward correction’ in the near term. However, he noted that it is likely to catch the ATH level in the next 24 months. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and ADA analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin slumped to the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 12. This suggests that the break above the triangle on July 7 could be a bull trap.
Buyers are trying to maintain the level. However, the long wick on the July 13 candlestick indicates that the bears are selling near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,796). Both moving averages are sloping down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in negative territory. This shows that bears dominate.
If the price dips below the support line, BTC is likely to drop into the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone. This is an important area for the bulls to defend. Because if it gives way, it is possible for BTC to drop to $ 15,000. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. Such a move would suggest strong buying at the lower levels. This is likely to increase the likelihood of a rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($24,084).
Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum broke below the support line of the ascending triangle formation on July 12. This invalidated the ascension setup. A minor positive is that the bulls are trying to push the price back into the triangle.
If they manage to do so, it suggests that the break below the triangle could be a bear trap. The bulls will then try to push the price above the overhead resistance at $1,280. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($1,383) is possible, increasing the chances of a fresh upside move.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops from the support line, it will indicate that the bears have turned the level into resistance. Sellers will then try to push ETH below $998 and challenge the key support at $881. If this support is broken, ETH is likely to start the next leg of the downtrend.
Binance coin (BNB)
The bulls failed to take advantage of BNB’s break above the 20-day EMA ($231). This failure was exploited by bears who were selling aggressively at higher levels, pushing the price below the 20-day EMA on July 11.
BNB tried to recover from strong support at $211 on July 13. However, the long wick on the candlestick indicates that the bears are selling near the 20-day EMA. Selling could intensify if the price drops below $211. It is possible for BNB to slide to vital support at $83 later.
Conversely, if the price rises from $211 and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong demand lower. Buyers will then make another attempt to break through the overhead barrier at the 50-day SMA ($253).
Ripple (XRP)
Ripple fell below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 11. This indicates that the uncertainty between the bulls and bears has been resolved to the downside.
The bulls tried to return the price to the triangle on July 13. However, the long wick on the candlestick indicates that the bears are selling on small intraday rallies. If the price dips below $0.30, a drop to the critical support at $0.28 is possible. A break and close below this level is likely to mark the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.33). Such a move suggests that the slide under the triangle could be a bear trap. XRP could signal a potential trend change on a break above the triangle’s resistance line.
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano fell below the immediate support at $0.44 on July 11. This showed that the bears were in command. The sell-off continued and the bears pulled the price to the important support at $0.40.
Buyers tried to recover on July 13. However, the long wick on the candlestick of the day shows that the bears are trying to turn the $0.44 level into resistance. If the price drops below $0.40, selling could pick up momentum and ADA could resume the downtrend. It is possible for ADA to drop to $0.33 later. To invalidate this negative view, buyers will need to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. If this happens, ADA has an opportunity to attempt a rally to $0.60.
SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB and LEO analysis
Left (LEFT)
Solana fell below the support line of the symmetrical triangle on July 11. Attempts by the bulls to push the price back into the triangle failed on July 12.
However, the bulls did not give up and are trying to push the price back into the triangle again on July 13. If they are successful, it will suggest that the July 11 drop could be a bear trap. Buyers will then attempt to clear the hurdle at the resistance line and start a fresh upward move towards $50. Contrary to this assumption, selling could intensify and drop SOL to $26 if the price breaks from the current level or overhead resistance and dips below $31.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Dogecoin broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on July 10. The bears took this opportunity and pushed the price below the strong support at $0.06 on July 12.
If the price stays below $0.06, selling momentum is possible and DOGE retests the critical support at $0.05. This is an important level to consider. Because a break below this could signal a resumption of the downtrend. DOGE is likely to drop to $0.04 later. Alternatively, if the price rises from the current level, buyers will try to push the DOGE above the moving averages. If successful, DOGE has a chance to rally to $0.08 and near $0.10.
Polkadot (DOT)
Polkadot broke below key support at $6.36 on July 12 and closed. This signaled the aggressive selling of the bears. A small positive is that the RSI continues the positive divergence, which indicates that the bearish momentum may be coming to an end.
Buyers are trying to push the price above $6.36 and trap the aggressive bears. If this happens, DOT could rally towards the overhead resistance at $7.30. Buyers will have to break through this hurdle and the 50-day SMA ($8.04) to indicate that the downtrend may be coming to an end. Conversely, if the price fails to stay above $6.36, it will show that the bears remain in control. Sellers will then try to continue the downtrend and lower the DOT to $5.
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
SHIB fell below the psychological level at $0.000010 on July 12. This showed strong selling by the bears. A minor positive is that the bulls are buying the dip and trying to hold the price above $0.000010.
Both moving averages for the SHIB have flattened out. Also, the RSI is just below the midpoint. This shows that there is a balance between supply and demand. In a range, traders usually buy near the support and sell near the resistance.
If the buyers push the price above the moving averages, SHIB could try to move higher towards $0.000012. The bulls will have to break this resistance to open the doors for a possible rally to $0.000014. This view is possible for SHIB to invalidate on a break below $0.000009.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO)
LEO’s repeated failure to hold above $6 indicates a lack of demand at higher levels. It’s possible that this has attracted the selling of aggressive bears.
The price dropped from $5.91 on July 10 and settled below the 20-day EMA ($5.60). This was followed by more selling on July 12 that drove the price below the 50-day SMA ($5.42). If the bears sustain the price below the 50-day SMA, LEO is likely to drop towards the descending channel support line.
Conversely, if the price bounces back from the current level, the bulls will make another attempt to break through the general hurdle at the resistance line. Thus, it will challenge the important level at $6. A break and close above this level is likely to mark the start of a new upward move.
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