A new research reveals that even if carbon emissions are reduced, our planet may face a challenging process in the long run. Potsdam Climate Effects Research Institute (PIK) in Germany, according to scientists, even if carbon emissions are moderate, the average temperature of the Earth may increase by 7 ° C when it comes to 2200. This increase may bring unprecedented problems in human history.
Such temperature increase can lead to a serious impact on areas where agricultural products are grown. While most crops become unable to grow at such temperatures, food insecurity and hunger on a global scale may be a major threat. In addition, the rise of sea levels due to melting glaciers will lead to the abandonment of coastal areas. Increased temperatures, drought, hot air waves, forest fires, tropical storms and floods can lead to more common weather events.
Considering the regions that face dangerous temperatures in the summer months, it is not difficult to understand how such an increase in such temperature can have an effect.
Climate warns from scientists: Do not underestimate carbon reduction
Christine Kaufold, the editor -in -chief of the study, emphasizes the urgent need for the findings for faster carbon reduction and removal. According to Kaufhold, “the summit temperature can be much higher than expected, even in low to medium -level emission scenarios.” This shows that existing climatic policies are inadequate.
Sera gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane are largely released into the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels. However, these gases are also caused by natural processes such as volcanic eruptions, animal and plant respiration. Therefore, the development of technologies for carbon reduction is critical.
In the study, PIK scientists simulated future global warming scenarios using a new computer model called CLIMBER-X. This model brings together physical, biological and geochemical processes such as atmospheric and ocean conditions. It also takes into account the effects of powerful greenhouse gases such as methane. In the study, three different scenarios called “shared socioeconomic ways” (SSP) were evaluated based on low, medium and high global emission forecasts.
According to the researchers, carbon cycle feedback mechanisms may accelerate climate change further. For example, rainy air causes rapid growth of flammable herbs, while these herbs can accelerate the spread of forest fires when dry. Another example is that CO2 in the rain water is eroding the rocks and increasing the CO2 level in the atmosphere.
Such mechanisms increase the risk of greenhouse gases that are currently released on the temperature of the world in the future. Therefore, not only to reduce carbon emissions, but also to intervene in these feedback cycles becomes a critical need.
The last chance to achieve its goal of Paris
Matteo Willeit, the columnist of the study, emphasizes that carbon reduction should be accelerated more than expected in order to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement targets. Otherwise, even if the emissions are now stopped, the world’s probability of heating 3 ° C is estimated to be 10 percent.
This study once again reveals how urgent measures to be taken against climate change are and that more effective strategies are necessary for a more sustainable future.
The research was published in Environmental Research Letters.
