Unlike some volcanic eruptions, a messenger system that gives clear results for large earthquakes has yet to be realized. Geophysicist seismologists Bletery and Nocquet analyzed high-rate GPS time series before 90 different earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above to find a herald signal before earthquakes. A system that predicts large earthquakes has been found with the experiment, which reached a reasonable conclusion!
How does the system that predicts earthquakes of 7 and above work?
Two geophysicists observed a signal that appeared along with the noise about 2 hours before major earthquakes occurred. The existence of an observable proto-slip phase on the fault prior to major earthquakes has been debated for decades. Although observations before several major earthquakes have been cited as possible indicators of fore-slip, these observations do not directly precede earthquakes.
Most of these are not observed just before the earthquake and can be observed without being followed by earthquakes. For this, Bletery and Nocquet conducted a global search for short-term precursor drift in GPS data. He collected displacements measured with a high-rate GPS time series during the 48 hours preceding 90 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater.
This approach revealed an acceleration in shear rate over a period of about 2 hours just prior to the earthquakes. This showed us that major earthquakes begin with a leading slip period. This means that developments in the measurement sensitivity and intensity of large earthquakes can be detected more effectively, and investigations and precautions can be taken before possible earthquakes.
Detecting the precursors of natural disasters is key to predicting these events and minimizing human and economic losses. The search for earthquake predictors has been a long-standing pursuit, with high hopes being placed on the concept of earthquake prediction in the early 1970s. However, the indicators in the systems found so far were either years ago or had nothing to do with the earthquake.
Along with this latest research, seismologists Bletery and Nocquet discovered a signal released in the leading shifts of earthquakes. He analyzed the acceleration in the velocity of the shifts in the fore-earthquakes, discovering that this signal is also a special signal released from the fore-earthquake noises, which is revealed before such large earthquakes.
“For now, we cannot use this finding in practice with our sensors in existing technology. Now we have to improve the technology and sensitivity of the sensors.” If this system is put into practice, it is thought to be one of the best inventions made on behalf of humanity. So much so that knowing the earthquakes that we are exposed to in our country means saving many lives.
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