Senior Analyst, Bullish Despite Bitcoin Drop: These Levels Are Coming!

Veteran crypto trader and analyst Tone Vays remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects despite the current market downturn. In a recent YouTube video, Vays told his 123,000 subscribers that he is bullish on Bitcoin, citing the upcoming halving as a reason for his confidence. Here are the details…

Tone Vays “bulls” for Bitcoin

Vays believes that the probability of Bitcoin rising more than 30% from its current level is higher than the probability of falling to around $22,000. According to Vays, this bullish thesis is due to the fact that Bitcoin’s halving is less than a year away. Vays noted that he has more confidence in support areas after a 10 percent or 20 percent retracement as there is less time until the halving event. He believes that the probability of a random upside swing where Bitcoin directly hits $34,000 is much higher than a random downside crash where it hits $22,000.

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $26,792, according to Cryptokoin.com data. Vays stated that even if Bitcoin experiences further corrections, the bullish thesis will remain unchanged. He added that when Bitcoin pulls back, it is on the rise at $25,000 as well as $25,000, and that there is no difference between a pullback to $25,000 and a pullback to $20,000. In fact, he believes a pullback to $25,000 is probably a little safer because it “won’t happen tomorrow”, but it will still happen in mid-May.

What does the on-chain data point to?

However, blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode reported that the cost basis for short-term Bitcoin holders hovers around $25.2k. This represents a breakeven point for recent buyers and indicates that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a market correction. A successful retest of MVRV = 1.0 occurred during the March correction, which is typical for uptrend markets. This means that Bitcoin’s market value equals its realized value, indicating a healthy market.

Many are now wondering if Bitcoin will reach $25.2k and find support during this round of correction. Another powerful tool to use during market corrections, SOPR shows that local top buyers are panicking and spending increasing volumes of coins near corrective bottoms. This points to the losses realized by pushing SOPR below 1. It is crucial to understand what these indicators mean for the future of Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has undergone a market correction, it has historically been a volatile asset. Investors and traders should be careful and consider the long-term prospects of the asset. Due diligence is very important when investing in cryptocurrencies.