According to analysts, Bitcoin is giving the strongest sell signal since 2021. So, will the leading crypto price drop to 10 thousand dollars? We have compiled the opinions and predictions of analysts on this subject for our readers.
“Bitcoin goes below 10 thousand dollars”
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, the crypto market has not yet recovered from the FTX-induced crisis. However, the leading coin is showing its strongest sell signal since 2021. In particular, TradingShot analysts, observing Bitcoin’s price movements on the 3-day timeframe, point out the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), which has formed a ‘Bearish Cross’ since last week. In this context, analysts say:
Since March 2021, we’ve had this lineup four more times. All of which gave a new Bottom. The 16 September 2021 Cross was limited to ‘only’ -18% decline. But the other three caused massive -50%, -52% and -57% drops.
Source: TradingShot / TradingViewAnalysts conclude that a ‘standard’ (…) -50% drop from today’s Bearish Cross candle will push the price just below the $10,000 barrier, which is undoubtedly a huge psychological level. Add to that the rejection at BTC’s 3D MA50 (blue trendline), before the last MACD Bearish Cross and the -57% drop, late March/early April 2022.
Does BTC have a chance to rise?
However, TradingShot notices a single parameter different from past events. This time, the Bearish Cross formation is in a Lower Channel compared to the Upper Channel in previous events. Analysts are unsure whether this will have any impact on the likely outcome. However, they underline that this may lead to the end of the bearish pattern. Based on this, they make the following statement:
A good indication that it might be different this time is when the price breaks above the Channel Drop. So the fact that the 3D MA50 is currently at 20,386 could also be an indication.
On top of that, the crypto analyst, nicknamed Mustache, has previously noticed that Bitcoin has formed the largest descending-expanding wedge ever. He also stressed that historically ‘the price always increased rapidly after that’.
“Bitcoin hits a price target of $12,000”
Bitcoin, like major altcoins, has remained calm about the FTX debacle and its knock-on effects. For analysts, the outlook is equally grim as the already poor forecasts worsen in light of recent events. Trade firm QCP Capital comments:
This poor performance of all crypto assets is here to stay until most of the uncertainty is gone.
In a comprehensive market summary, QCP wrote that price forecasts for both Bitcoin and Ether ETH should now drop to reflect the impact of FTX. An update to a forecast based on Elliott Wave theory in June confirmed that BTC is now a target of $12,000 and ETH a target of $800. In this regard, he made the following statement:
As a side note, crypto markets are trading in the extended 5th Wave, which is the longest wave since the 2017 peak, similar to commodities. Thus, such potential price movements with new lows in the new year will be characteristic of the previous bear market.
An accompanying chart highlights the divergence between crypto and stocks in November as the correlation between them faltered thanks to crypto’s poor performance.
BTC and ETH – S&P 500 chart / Source: QCP Capital“Never say never and don’t let your guard down”
Analyst Cantering Clark considers the current bear market in risky assets mimicking the global financial crisis. In this case, it is worth noting that heavy losses are still at hand. In this regard, he adds:
Lehman’s bankruptcy was the culmination of the 2008 financial crisis. It was qualitatively the lowest material. However, the market stagnated and then fell another 40%. Never, never say ‘never’ and don’t let your guard down.
S&P 500 annotated chart / Source: Cantering Clark / TwitterAdditionally, $13,500 has also become a popular downside target.
The crypto cake is “cut drastically”
In addition, QCP expresses its concerns about declining volumes and open interest (OI) on both centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges. For this, he shares the following comment:
CEX derivatives exchange volumes have been hit the hardest so far. Combined futures OI is now back to pre-2021 levels. This is a big step backwards for the industry.
Bitcoin futures open interest chart / Source: QCP CapitalOn the subject of DEXs, QCP says the data ‘implies that the entire crypto pie has been drastically cut. Also, alongside more descriptive graphics, he summarizes, “Overall DeFi TVL is now less than 1/4 of last year’s peak.” Finally, he makes the following statement:
Even the most anticipated DEXs have only seen volumes rise to July/August levels despite all the emergency tokens/stablecoins/chain-swapping post-FTX required.
DEX volume chart / Source: QCP Capital
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