Known for its viral dance videos, TikTok is also used by amateur researchers to track Russian military plans along the Ukrainian border. Among these researchers is the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), based in Russia and Ukraine.
CIT, as its name suggests, practices open source intelligence, a method of information gathering that leverages publicly available data such as social media and satellite imagery. Kirill Mikhailov, one of the core members of the group, said: “It’s basically a group of independent bloggers that engages military equipment enthusiasts with their research.” said.
Russia’s Ukraine intelligence is followed on social media
CIT’s research has been widely cited in recent months, including an analysis of the Russian military build-up near Ukraine on January 15.
The group’s work has also been featured in recent publications by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Laboratory. Thomas Bullock, an analyst at private intelligence firm Jane’s, touted the CIT as one of the best groups currently monitoring Russia’s military buildup.
The Biden administration warned that Russia could make up an excuse to invade Ukraine, but Russia denied the accusation. In the midst of this worldwide tension, Mikhailov explained how the CIT collected some data.
“Every train in Russia is recorded in some central database,” Mikhailov said. said. A train’s departure is checked against social media footage: some Russian TikTok hashtags filled with videos of multiple launch rocket systems, troop carriers, and tank-carrying trains that researchers have visually matched with stations along the trains’ routes.
The researchers also supplement their findings with satellite data or, in some cases, social media comments. Mihaylov interprets the military videos going viral on TikTok as a “lucky” situation.
According to Robert Abrams, the former commander of the US forces, hiding is not possible in today’s global military environment. Open source intelligence is more common than ever, everyone now has a cell phone and satellite imagery is cheaper to obtain.
“From a military standpoint, you really have to think about how to maintain your position and movements and what your capabilities are,” Abrams said. You don’t have to worry about airplanes flying with infrared radar anymore, you have to worry about people with a cell phone now.” said.
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