New research suggests that advances over the next decade could pave the way for quantum computers powerful enough to break Bitcoin encryption. University of Sussex scientists in the UK estimate that 13 million qubit quantum systems will be enough to crack the cryptographic algorithm (SHA-256) that protects the Bitcoin blockchain within 24 hours.
While modern quantum computers don’t come close to this level of performance (the current record is “only” 127 qubits), the researchers say that within the next decade, significant advances could enable quantum devices with enough power.
The ability to crack the encryption protecting the Bitcoin network could allow an attacker to hijack transactions and redirect coins to their own wallets. In this hypothetical scenario, as soon as an attack occurs, the market will definitely crash and wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars in value.
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts may take comfort in knowing that for now it is impossible to crack the SHA-256 algorithm with current hardware, but that will one day change. The most powerful quantum system available, manufactured by IBM, is stated to be the first system whose performance cannot be reliably replicated by a classical computer, but it still hasn’t come close to the 13 million qubits needed to crack Bitcoin.
Still, extensive research into all aspects of quantum computing continues from nearly every major tech company in the world. A lot of work is being done to increase the number of qubits in a quantum processor, but researchers are also examining opportunities for qubit design, coupling quantum and classical computing, new cooling techniques, and more.
Of course, Bitcoin will switch to a new quantum-safe encryption method long before a powerful enough quantum computer is developed. But the research still raises an important point about the longevity of encryption techniques.
As noted by the project’s principal investigator, Mark Webber, it would be a mistake to assume that information encrypted today will remain secure tomorrow, as advances in quantum computing will inevitably make modern encryption obsolete.
“People are already worried because you can save encrypted messages right now and decrypt them in the future,” Webber says. “There’s a huge concern that we urgently need to change our encryption techniques because they won’t be secure in the future.”
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