CryptoQuant contributing analyst argues that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently a silly investment for willing buyers. Additionally, research claims that Bitcoin is facing a ‘loop bottom’ this year, where it could drop more than 50% from current levels.
Is 2022 the year of Bitcoin (BTC) ‘surrender’?
In a June 1 Twitter thread, analyst alias Venturefounder, contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicts 2022 as Bitcoin’s ‘surrender’ year. Based on historical patterns involving Bitcoin’s halvings, the analyst says this year should be the bear market black sheep of the current four-year cycle, making the following assessment:
Just like 2018 and the bear market like, BTC should find a macro base for itself at some point in 2022, and if we calculate the previous dips from all-time highs, that could be anywhere between $14,000 and $21,000.
Bitcoin’s route according to Venturefounder
In a tweet, “670 days to the next Bitcoin halving, timely to BTC performance compared to past cycles. Venturefounder predicts:
In the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate in the next 6 months and hit the bottom of the cycle ($14-21,000), then fluctuate around $28-40k for most of 2023. and it will be around $40k again until the next halving.
Such a prognosis (guessing the outcome of the question) is not without precedent, if not music to the bulls’ ears. As you can remember from the news of Kriptokoin.com, after reaching $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to recover to $13,800 seven months later and returned downhill to $3,600, the low of March 2020. Even the 2019 local peak wasn’t enough to break the time record ($20,000) set in December 2017.
Bitcoin currently has the “best 3-year ROI ever”
Venturefounder says that this level ($40k) for Bitcoin is again on the spot price chart. He believes it can become a feature. Those who want to ride the wave and invest (even now) will be on the right side of history, according to the analyst. He explains it this way:
In other words, buying Bitcoin for 6-12 months from this point forward is as good as it gets. Probably the best 3-year ROI ever. We may not be at the bottom of the cycle, but we are in the bottom range of the BTC cycle. This is the best thing you can do when timing market cycles.
Bottoms for BTC keep coming
Meanwhile, other analysts are predicting the lowest possible range for BTC at or near $14,000. This predicted price would represent an approximately 80% drop from the current all-time high of $69,000, which corresponds to the percent low of the previous cycle.
Current levels around $31,000 look relatively modest as a drop, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
BTC drops from all-time highs / Source: Glassnode Last month, fellow analyst Rekt Capital calculated a potential target of $15,500 when BTC fell below its 200-week moving average.
Sellers may face difficulties driving the market this far. MicroStrategy, which owns the largest BTC institutional treasury, has pledged to buy any step towards the $20,000 mark. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of trading giant BitMEX, also confirmed that he will be interested in BTC at $20,000.
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