Until recently, there was no sign of slowing down in the increase in the world population. However, in the last few years, the population growth has almost reached a stopping point. It is now thought that the population has reached its peak in many countries and will fall until the end of the century.

In 2024, the population of our planet reached eight billion and reached a new turning point. However, according to the latest estimates of the UN, the world’s population is expected to increase only two billion in the next 60 years.

In the 2080s, the world’s population is expected to reach 10.3 billion and then decreased to 10.2 billion before the end of the century. Experts think that the world population is 80 %likely to reach the summit before 2100.

However, ten years ago, this possibility was estimated to be only 30 %, and some models predicted that the global population would exceed 12 billion by 2100. This velocity change in population growth can be explained by a major decrease in fertility rates. In order to protect the population of a country, the fertility rate must be around 2.1. However, in more than half of the countries, this ratio went below the critical limit.

According to the latest data, almost one -fifth of all countries now have “ultra low fertility”, so less than 1.4 live birth per woman. China, the most populous country in the world, is also included in this group. With Russia, Japan and more than 60 countries, China has now reached its maximum population and has declined. The population in these countries is estimated to decrease by about 14 %by 2054.

Demographic transition

Although there are many factors affecting fertility rates, this widespread decrease can be explained to a large extent with the phenomenon known as the “demographic transition”. As women become industrialized, women tend to have less babies. Women have more career opportunities and often prefer to start a family later in their lives. Factors such as decreases in child mortality rates and the decrease in the need for large families to process the land also contribute to the emergence of less infants.

When this decrease in fertility rates is combined with increasing life expectancy, it can fundamentally change the demographic structure of the population and the age of the total population may rise much. Experts, as well as foreseeing a general decrease in population growth, the number of people over the age of 65 around 2070 will leave behind the age of 18 years.