According to Rekt Capital, “The new wave is coming,” Bitcoin price risks breaking $15,000. Historical data shows that the downside path is open for BTC.
Bitcoin prediction to $10,000 from Rekt Capital
Bitcoin has lost 8% at one point today as the US dollar index remains above 110. The pressure is increasing on the markets ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on September 20-21. According to popular cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin price could drop below $13,900 or even as low as $11,500 in an extreme scenario.
Historical data shows more bearish for Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC price is currently busy surpassing $20,000 on the monthly timeframe. This shows that the bulls are still weak. The $20,000-$23,350 range will be a decisive zone for the struggle between the bulls or the bears. Price action in July and August shows a divergence in buying pressure with $20,000 acting as support.
However, price weakness in September indicates that $20,000 has now become a resistance level. If Bitcoin (BTC) breaks below $20,000 at the end of the month, the next levels of support will be $17,165 and $13,900. Following a Death Cross, BTC price has historically bottomed out at or below the 200-week moving average (WMA). Post Death Cross fixes ranged from -42% to -73%.
Historical retracements and support levels after Death Cross provide remarkable data. Accordingly, a possible scenario for BTC price to drop around $13,900. In the worst case, BTC price will deepen to $11,500. BTC price is already trading below the 200-WMA and the psychological $20,000 level. Therefore, the most likely scenario seems to be to the downside, according to analysts. However, there is now a significant difference in Bitcoin market cap size, liquidity, and institutional and retail acceptance compared to previous times.
BTC bottomed 547 days before the 2015 halving and 517 days before the 2018 halving. As a result, if Bitcoin drops 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 halving, it will drop in Q4 of this year.
Macroeconomic factors to follow
Despite the increase in the number of new daily addresses, BTC price remains below $20,000. The price of Bitcoin will largely be determined by the Fed’s rate hike on September 21. Goldman Sachs forecasts 75 basis points gains in September, followed by 50 basis points in November and December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an increase of 75 basis points is 80%.
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin price is currently trading above $19,000. It’s up about 4% from a 24-hour low of $18,390.
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