While just starting to get over a global epidemic like the coronavirus, the world has been worried about a new epidemic in recent days. Monkeypox virus, which is usually seen in Central and West African countries, has been seen in a total of 21 countries such as some Western European countries, the USA and Israel. While the total number of cases worldwide is approaching 300, it was recently announced that the USA will start the vaccination of cases.
On the other hand, the monkeypox virus began to host many misconceptions and misinformation, just like at the beginning of the coronavirus. The last of these was seen in the news shared by some media organizations today. Based on an article published in Spain, the news in question claimed that the virus would kill 271 million people. But the article didn’t say that.
News not true:
NTI (Nuclear Threat Initiative) November 2021 “Empowering Global Systems to Prevent and Respond to Biological Threats with Serious Consequences” The article titled ” featured the results of a study conducted in 2021 in partnership with the Munich Security Conference. The summary of the article actually shows that the news in question is false:
“In March 2021, the NTI partnered with the Munich Security Conference to conduct a desktop exercise to reduce high-impact biological threats. The exercise explored gaps in national and international biosecurity and pandemic preparedness architectures, exploring opportunities to improve prevention and response capabilities for biological events with serious consequences. This report summarizes the exercise scenario, key findings from the discussion, and actionable recommendations for the international community.”
- Desktop exercises are discussion-based sessions where team members meet in an informal classroom setting to discuss their role and response to a particular emergency during an emergency.
SCENARIO created in the study:
In the aforementioned study, in which many experts participated, the team discussed what can happen in a monkeypox epidemic within the framework of the ‘scenario’ and they argued. What could happen in a possible epidemic was conveyed by the team with hypothetical dates and fictional countries as follows:
- 5 June 2022: In Brinia with a population of 250 million, an epidemic of monkey virus occurs, 1421 cases and 4 deaths are reported. There is no evidence of international spread. The Brinia government seeks medical support from the World Health Organization. Studies on the virus indicate that the mutation in Brinia makes it immune to current vaccines.
- 10 January 2023: 83 countries are affected, there are 70 million cases, 1.3 million people died. Countries resort to non-drug interventions because there is no effective treatment available. Countries like the Republic of Dranma take drastic measures to curb the spread of the virus. Countries like Cardus, on the other hand, take the virus lightly and look to protect their economies. In these countries, the outcome of the epidemic will be more serious.
- May 10, 2023: 480 million cases, 27 million deaths. At this point, the participants learn that the epidemic was caused by a regional bioterrorism attack that far exceeded the targets of the perpetrators. The Brinia government reveals that the engineered virus was developed illegally at the leading virology institute in its neighboring country, Arnica. It is learned that the independent Arnica terrorist group SPA is behind the work.
- 1 December 2023: 3.2 billion cases, 271 million deaths. The study ends here with a roundtable discussion. This discussion considers the gaps in worldwide public health preparedness and the need for more effective funding mechanisms to accelerate preparedness for the pandemic. In the study, it was accepted that preparedness for the epidemic requires costly investments that low- and middle-income countries cannot afford to make.
That is, a fictional study was interpreted as if it would happen in the real world:
This study by NTI simulating a fictional epidemic was interpreted as expected to happen in the current monkeypox epidemic and served . While concerns about a new pandemic continued, the publication of such a news was naturally on the agenda.
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