According to analysis by notorious crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, we are nearly a year away from the next altcoin bull season. The analyst says that the altcoin market bottomed on average 10 months before the Bitcoin halving cycle, and then took action.
Historical data points to these months for the next altcoin bull
Popular analyst Poppe says that the altcoin market is experiencing a period similar to the last stages of past bear cycles. In his current analysis, he stated that altcoins are probably in the biggest opportunity zones for long-term investors.
According to Van de Poppe, history shows that altcoins often see bear market bottoms 8 to 10 months before the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving cycle. This period usually represents a period of time when there is a general negative atmosphere regarding cryptocurrencies.
When do #Altcoins become a better asset to buy than #Bitcoin?
This is usually the case when nobody expects it. Quite frequently, if you look at a historical perspective, the best period to buy #Altcoins is after the Bitcoin ATH.
That would mean that there's such a large… pic.twitter.com/oyCOSYx9Mg
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 19, 2023
According to Poppe, the altcoin industry usually bottoms out in the 8-10 months before the Bitcoin halving cycle. Meanwhile, an opportunity arises for long-term investors to buy at low prices. Poppe expresses his expectations in some of his analyzes as follows:
The best period is 8-10 months before the Bitcoin halving cycle. As we are in the midst of the dissolution of the ‘time capitulation’, people have the lowest confidence that their position will continue to be in good standing…’
ETH/BTC lowered its cycle in September 2019. It also bottomed out in October 2015. Both were exactly 252 days before the Bitcoin halving.
The analyst also closely monitors the balance of power between ETH and BTC.
Poppe also closely monitors the ETH/BTC chart to spot and monitor the trend in the market. The analyst underlines that history tends to repeat itself. Therefore, he expects BTC alternatives to exit the downtrend in the coming months, similar to how they escaped the bear zone in 2019 and 2015. In part of his analysis, he writes of investors:
It certainly doesn’t look like we’ll have some power over altcoins, but often history repeats itself. It also recurs despite any change in the markets. Right now, there are recession scares (but how often do we get one if everyone is expecting it?). I’m sure we experienced the same in 2015 and 2019, and I’m sure we will have narratives to move the markets forward. [Lesson from the story]: If you have bags, sit tight. If not, buy altcoin and keep it for 2 years.
Ali Martinez says altcoin market will melt more in the short term
Ali Martinez, who you follow from Kriptokoin.com, says that the price of Bitcoin can fall as low as $ 20,350. The analyst includes a sharp decline in the ETH price in his predictions, supported by historical data. According to their analysis:
Every time BTC falls below the 200-day SMA over the past 10 years, it usually drops to touch the Realized Price. Currently, Actual Price is around 20,350…
ETH continues to show weakness and a slide below the $1,600 – $1,550 range for ETH could set the stage for a significant 37% – 45% correction to $1,000.
#Bitcoin | Each time $BTC has broken below the 200-day SMA over the last 10 years, it often drops to touch the Realized Price.
Right now, the Realized Price is around $20,350. pic.twitter.com/SazzyyIhNW
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 20, 2023
In summary, Martinez says technical indicators are giving a red signal for the short term. According to the analyst, both the Bitcoin and altcoin sectors will continue to be under pressure in the coming days. Meanwhile, BTC price is gaining strength in the $26,000 region.
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