Global temperatures briefly exceeded a point climate scientists feared late last week. Provisional data show that the average global temperature exceeded the critical threshold of 2°C above pre-industrial levels last Friday for the first time in recorded history.
Deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Dr. Sam Burgess posted on “This was the highest temperature ever recorded,” he said. Dr. Burgess added that provisional data for Saturday 18 November showed global average temperatures were 2.06°C above pre-industrial levels: “Our best estimate is that this is 2.06°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels.” “This is the first day it went above 2°C.”
There is ample evidence that if Earth were to consistently remain 2°C above pre-industrial levels, this would significantly impact the environment and the planet’s inhabitants (including us).
In a 2°C warmer world, the end is almost certain for more than 99 percent of coral reefs. We are also likely to see significantly greater declines in insects, 16 percent in plants, and 8 percent in vertebrates, compared to just 1.5°C of warming. Additionally, this change could push several hundred million people into climate-related poverty.
The 2°C threshold was a key tenet of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, under which international leaders hoped to keep global warming “less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and limit it to just 1.5°C.
Even if it’s just for one day…
However, it is worth noting that these data are only temporary for now and the global average temperature threshold has been exceeded for only one day. To fully measure the impact of climate change, we need to examine years, decades and long-term trends, not occasional odd days. However, some see these record figures as an important reference point, and we should not forget that this exceedance is not a one-off.
We have witnessed record-breaking temperatures many times this year. The world’s hottest day since records began occurred on July 3, 2023, but temperatures on July 4, which were almost 1°C above the 1979-2000 average, quickly surpassed that record.
These single days when boundaries are crossed become part of a larger trend. Scientists predict that 2023 will likely end with the highest global surface temperatures in recorded history. Additionally, if current trends are considered, we are likely to see record-breaking temperatures in 2024 as well.
Climate scientists and activists often talk about “keeping the 1.5°C target alive” and express the hope that the world can take adequate action to stay well below the 2°C threshold. While this weekend’s high global temperatures do not mean that target has been missed, it should be an alarming wake-up call about the precautions that need to be taken.
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