Despite recent rumors suggesting that Apple’s iPhone 16 series will bring even bigger innovations than the upcoming iPhone 15 series, the iPhone 15 may hit one of the biggest sales successes at launch. Market experts attribute this to the number of iPhones in use that are now considered obsolete.
According to analyst Dan Ives, nearly 250 million iPhones have not been refreshed in over four years. Ives told CNBC that the launch of the iPhone 15 series could be a “booty moment” for Apple and that the revenue growth from Apple Services will put the company in a “massive position of power” by 2024.
It’s hard to verify Ives’ claim about the number of non-upgraded iPhones without looking at official carrier records, but in 2019 researcher Toni Saccanoghi published a study that found that the average iPhone upgrade time increased from three to four years. And it’s not hard to understand why.
Apple typically supports iPhones with major software updates for at least five years after release. For example, the iPhone X, which was released in 2017, has been updated many times, including iOS 16, eventually becoming the youngest victim of iOS 17. Moreover, old iPhone models manage to perform well after the incoming updates.
It is also a fact that the technological gap between iPhone models that have been released over the years has narrowed. To the casual eye, for example, there is little difference between the iPhone 12 and the iPhone 14. Even now, it’s not easy to see any iPhone 12 users talking about poor performance.
But after four years, iPhones can start to feel a bit outdated. The iPhone 11, Apple’s 2019 iPhone, is a great phone that will continue to be supported until 2025. But the iPhone 15 will be a much lighter, brighter and faster device than its four-year-old sibling.
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