Is the Bitcoin (BTC) crash over? When will we see BTC price rise again? Crypto expert Rudy Fares seeks answers to these questions. Also, according to one analyst, Bitcoin ‘delta price’, which has acted as a bottom in previous cycles, is likely to once again hold the answers for a cyclic bottom this time around.
How has Bitcoin performed in recent weeks?
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop in price with the explosion of FTX. The price has stabilized over the past few weeks and is now back at $17,000. It looks like the great crash is over.
Bitcoin price in the last 30 days, source / GochartingOver the past few weeks, the price has stabilized again above the $16,000 level. BTC settled between $16,000 and $17,000. Recently, BTC price briefly managed to climb back above $17,000 again. According to analysts, it could be a sign that the price will still rise to $20,000 in December.
Has the bear market bottomed out?
Bitcoin may have hit its lowest level for the current bear market after the FTX crash. It already saw this low in June 2022, when the price dropped below $18,000 for the first time in 2022. But the unexpected collapse of FTX triggered such a sharp drop that Bitcoin fell even further. In fact, this time it’s possible that he’s hit the bottom. Because there is a possibility of seeing sustainable price increases again in 2023. Here are a few reasons:
- Before the crash, there were some positive market signals. In addition, external factors such as falling inflation support a positive trend.
- The drop of over 75% from its all-time high is similar to what has been seen in recent bear markets.
- It’s possible that 2023 will be the equivalent of 2019, when the Bitcoin price rose from $3,500 to $10,500 mid-year. The course of the two bear markets is very similar.
When will the Bitcoin price rise again?
December is likely to be another strong, bullish month. Historically, slight increases are possible again, especially towards the end of the year. But it’s hard to say whether it will be enough to go above $20,000. But a price increase in 2023 needs to be much stronger. Bitcoin could rise above $40,000 again next year if it sees a similar development as in 2019. If the trend continues, it will likely approach the $50,000 mark again.
Is now a good time to buy BTC?
Looking at the big picture, the Bitcoin price is probably particularly low right now. Due to the very low prices in recent months, many people’s interest in the crypto market has waned. However, there was a similar situation at the beginning of 2018 and 2019. Bitcoin price dropped to $3,500 and many investors who had invested in the big bull market of late 2017 lost interest.
If the current market stage actually means low for the BTC price, now is an ideal opportunity to buy BTC. It’s hard to say how long the window of lower prices will last. Another drop below $15,000 is possible in BTC price. However, the end result is not certain.
How low can Bitcoin go?
As one analyst in a CryptoQuant post pointed out, it’s possible for BTC to continue losing value before a bottom turning point is reached. Before looking at the concept of the “delta limit”, two other popular capitalization methods of Bitcoin need to be understood. These are the “actual limit” and the “mean limit”.
First, the realized limit takes the value of each circulating crypto as the price it last moved. It then calculates the upper bound of BTC by summing these values for the entire supply. This is different from the regular market cap, which takes the value of each token equal to the current Bitcoin price.
The average cap, as the name suggests, is the average of the market value. Its value is calculated by dividing the current daily market cap by the total number of days BTC has been in circulation. Now, taking the difference between the actual and average limits gives us what is known as the ‘delta limit’. The delta limit is a popularly used pattern to detect cyclical bottoms in crypto price. Here is a chart that shows how this limit is moving as a bottom in the 2018/19 bear market:
Normal market cap is currently close to this limit / Source: CryptoQuantAs you can see in the chart above, the Bitcoin delta boundary acted as a support during the 2018/19 bear market. A similar trend was observed in the period of 2014/15. Currently, the market cap is once again approaching this limit. But it’s not quite there yet.
To put things in better perspective, the ‘delta price’ is used, which is the delta cap divided by the total number of coins in circulation. Currently, the delta price is worth around $12.8k. This means that Bitcoin is still a little off this mark. If delta price bottoms out as in the previous two cycles, BTC will need to see further declines before the same condition is met.
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