Humanity has been trying to predict nature, the only power it cannot control since its existence. The most common forecasts on this subject are related to the weather. Weather forecasts do not only affect the picnic you will go on Sunday with your family, weather forecasts are taken seriously in many areas, especially in agriculture, and if necessary, measures are taken according to these forecasts.
So, how is the weather forecast made? If so many people’s only job is to predict the weather, why do some predictions turn out to be wrong? Today, modern weather forecasts are made as a result of models prepared by meteorologists on computers. But we are talking about nature, no matter how powerful and smart computers you use, even a little wind can create a butterfly effect.
What is the weather?
There is a layer of gas and vapor on our Earth that we call the atmosphere. This layer consists of nitrogen, oxygen and water vapor. Although the structure consists entirely of gas, when we look at it from afar, we see that it moves just like a liquid. These seemingly simple gas movements create the natural events we call weather.
When cold air, which is dense and does not hold much moisture, and warm air regions, which are less dense and retain more moisture, combine, fronts are formed and it rains. Convectional precipitation occurs when warm, humid air rises. The variation of such gas, liquid and temperature states plays a major role in weather forecasting.
How is the weather forecast made?
Ground radars, weather balloons, airplanes, satellites, ocean buoys and many more devices instantly monitor atmospheric movements and climate effects such as temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed in almost every part of the world. All these data form the basis of weather forecasts.
Before modern forecasting, meteorologists analyzed this data, evaluated it, and made a forecast. Today, all these data are processed on powerful computers owned by universities, private enterprises and public institutions, and weather models are created.
If computers do everything, don’t think why meteorologists are needed. Because these experts determine how the thousands of different data obtained will be processed by the computer. In prediction models, not all data is presented in soup. Different data are used for different models. In other words, the human touch of an expert is always needed.
Why are weather forecasts wrong?
We have been officially forecasting the weather since the early 1800s. As we get to know the atmosphere and nature better together with the developments in time, the predictions are becoming more and more point-blank. So much so that a 4-day weather forecast made today is much more accurate than the daily forecast made 30 years ago.
When creating a model with data from atmosphere and climate effects, the Earth is divided into squares. Some squares are small, some are large. Large squares give much longer-term but imprecise results, while small squares give much shorter-term but almost certain results.
Weather forecast models are tried to be made by calculating many unpredictable data, but it is not known when unpredictable events will occur. While everything is going as predicted in the model area, a wind blowing from a completely different place can create a butterfly effect and turn all the predictions upside down.
Prediction publishers also have a fair share of misleading in this regard. There is a 30% chance of rain and a 70% chance of rain. It will rain today. ‘, of course, the prediction will appear to be wrong. A similar phenomenon occurs in large areas. E.g; It was said that it will rain in Ankara, but it does not rain in your area. But you don’t know that another district is flooding.
How is the weather forecast made in Turkey?
Although it receives data support from many different private and public institutions and organizations, the official government agency in charge of weather forecasting in our country is the General Directorate of Meteorology. According to 2019 figures, 1636 ground stations, 74 airport stations and 83 sea stations in our country collect the necessary data for weather forecasting models.
All these automatic stations make value measurements of conditions such as temperature, pressure, wind speed, sun exposure, soil temperature, humidity, precipitation. The measurements in question are transferred to computers by expert meteorologists, as is the case all over the world, and weather forecast models are prepared.
Is it possible to make much more accurate weather forecasts?
Just as we were able to make almost perfect weekly weather forecasts 30 years ago when we were wrong about daily forecasts, we will soon be able to make much longer-term and precise forecasts. We will definitely do it because technology is developing and thanks to scientific studies, we get to know the atmosphere and the Earth much more closely.
Forecasting the weather is not psychic. After all, there are some data, and like all scientific studies, these data are analyzed by experts. The only difference is that the results are obtained so quickly that right and wrong can be confused. The faster the more forecast models are created, the more accurate the announced weather forecasts will be.
We answered questions such as how the weather forecasts are made, why the forecasts are wrong, and we talked about the details you need to know about the weather forecasts. Let us remind you that the unusual relationship between rheumatic pain and rain is not one of the modern weather forecasting models.
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