Every fan looks forward to the transfer window. It is one of the factors that excite them that new and especially star football players join their favorite team. We talked about the incomes of football clubs, but if we look at the expenses, the biggest expenses are again made during the transfer period. Especially in recent years, we are witnessing huge wages being paid for football players. Finally, in 2021, all teams from different countries made a transfer expenditure of $ 4.86 billion. This was $5.63 billion in 2020 and $7.35 billion in 2019. Even if we see that the total spending amounts decrease as the pandemic affects the club economies, we are still talking about a very large pool.
Of course, the first platform that comes to mind when it comes to transfer is ‘Transfermarkt’. Through Transfermarkt, we can access the statistics of teams and players, their form status and transfer expenditures. The topic we will discuss today is the criteria by which the market values of football players on Transfermarkt are calculated.
First of all, what are ‘Termscore’ and ‘Market Value’?
When players sign a contract with a team, they sign a contract to make the job official. This contract also includes how long the player will stay in that team, that is, the duration of the contract. If the player wants to move to another team while his contract is still in progress, he must pay a compensation to the current team of the team he wants to go to. We call this compensation amount the testimonial fee. The transfer fee may vary depending on the release fee in the player’s contract or the agreement between the teams.
The market value, on the other hand, is the estimated testimonial fees that vary depending on the seasonal performance of the players and various factors. Unofficial market values may vary depending on the money spent for the transfer of that period, team budgets, countries and the characteristics of the player.
So how does Transfermarkt calculate the market values of players?
First of all, it should be noted that although Transfermarkt is the first platform that comes to mind when it comes to transfer, it does not have an official nature. In other words, the market values of the players are calculated based on the prediction. However, according to previous measurements made by sports-economics researchers, Transfermarkt is quite successful in determining the market values of players when official transfer fees are considered. So how do they do this?
First, let’s say that Transfermarkt does not use a specific algorithm. Their aim is not to determine the net price of the player, but to determine the expected value of that player in the event of a sale/transfer of the player based on the current football market. In doing so, they benefit from player statistics and recent performance, the player’s transfer history, the league he is in, news about the player and the Transfermarkt community.
The transfer fee and salaries paid to the player before are taken into account, the fees paid to other players in the transfer market are also taken into account and an average value is determined. These values are updated twice each season. As the season continues, this update path is used more frequently for young players who start to get new time and increase their performance. In other words, we can say that Transfermarkt prioritizes the follow-up of young players while determining the market value of football players and they work harder for them.
Criteria that Transfermarkt looks at when calculating player market values:
- Age of the football player
- The performance of the football player in the club and national team
- The sportive and financial level of the league in which the football player plays
- The development potential of the football player
- Number and level of clubs interested in the player
- The experience of the football player
- Football player’s susceptibility to injury
- General trends, demands and fees paid in the transfer market
In addition to these criteria, different situations may arise. Depending on the official contract between the club and the player, different market values may also occur. We can give examples such as the transfer fee, transfer conditions, player requests, salary level, contract options determined by the club for the player.
We have seen how Transfermarkt calculates the market values of players. Now let’s take a look at the transfers in football history with the high transfer fee paid and examine the Transfermarkt market values of the players at that time.
Player transfers and market values with the highest testimonial paid:
- Neymar
- Kylian Mbappe
- Ousmane Dembele
- Philippe Coutinho
- Joao Felix
- Antoine Griezmann
- Jack Grealish
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- Romelu Lukaku
- Eden Hazard
Eden Hazard’s transfer from Chelsea to Real Madrid
- Season: 2019/2020
- Officially paid testimonial: 115 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 150 million euros
Belgian football player Eden Hazard joined Chelsea after his performance in French team Lille. The star player showed a good performance here as well and winked at Real Madrid, who wanted to bring a new world star to the team after Ronaldo. This expected development took place in 2019 and Hazard went to Madrid with a transfer fee of 115 million euros.
Lukaku’s transfer from Inter to Chelsea:
- Season: 2021/2022
- Officially paid testimonial: 115 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 100 million euros
Premier League team Chelsea originally recruited Lukaku from Belgian team Anderlecht for 15 million euros in 2011. Lukaku could not deliver what was expected at that time and was loaned to West Brom. After this point, Lukaku, whose career is now independent from Chelsea, was able to show himself after transferring to Inter in 2019. Chelsea also did not remain indifferent to this performance and added Lukaku, whom they transferred for 15 million euros in 2011, to their squad for 115 million euros in 2021.
Transfer of Cristiano Ronaldo from Real Madrid to Juventus:
- Season: 2018/2019
- Officially paid testimonial: 117 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 100 million euros
In fact, if we talk about CR7, the first thing that comes to our minds is his transfer from Manchester United to Real Madrid. Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo was on his way to Madrid with a record fee of 94 million euros at that time. But Ronaldo’s next sale came at an even higher price. Ronaldo left Real Madrid at the age of 23 in 2018, when he was 31, and joined Juventus for 117 million euros.
Transfer of Jack Grealish from Aston Villa to Manchester City:
- Season: 2021/2022
- Officially paid testimonial: 117.5 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 65.5 million euros
English football player Jack Grealish, who grew up from Aston Villa infrastructure, earned 117.5 million euros in 2021 for his team, which he stepped into in 2011. Grealish continues his career in Manchester City, which he joined with this astonishing transfer fee.
Transfer of Antoine Griezmann from Atletico Madrid to Barcelona:
- Season: 2019/2020
- Officially paid testimonial: 120 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 130 million euros
Atletico Madrid is famous for getting performance from the transfers it makes and sending it to different teams with higher transfer fees. Barcelona, which has entered a squad structure due to its players leaving since 2018, also tied Atletico’s star Griezmann to his colors for 120 million euros. However, this vaccine did not work in Barcelona, and the Spanish player later returned to Atletico, albeit on loan.
Transfer of Joao Felix from Benfica to Atletico Madrid:
- Season: 2019/2020
- Officially paid testimonial: 127.2 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 70 million euros
We talked about Atletico Madrid’s transfer system more or less. Atletico could not remain indifferent to the performance of 19-year-old Felix, who played in Benfica. The Spanish team opened the mouth of the bag in 2019 and added the young football player to its staff for 127.2 million euros. Although he was 19 years old at that time, it was very discussed that it was one of the highest transfers in football history. Felix said, “The football market determines the transfer fees. He defended himself by saying, “My only purpose here is to play football.”
Transfer of Philippe Coutinho from Liverpool to Barcelona:
- Season: 2017/2018
- Officially paid testimonial: 135 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 90 million euros
No wonder that most of the highest paid footballers in football history are Brazilians. Brazil, a football country, has achieved great success on the basis of the national team and has always brought new talents to the football world. Philippe Coutinho was one of them. Barcelona signed Coutinho to Liverpool in 2018 by paying 135 million euros, but he could not return his testimonial with his performance. Coutinho is currently on loan at Aston Villa.
Transfer of Ousmane Dembele from Dortmund to Barcelona:
- Season: 2017/2018
- Officially paid testimonial: 140 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 33 million euros
Ousmane Dembele is one of the names who transferred with a high testimonial despite his young age. When the year showed 2017, Barcelona paid 140 million euros for Dembele, whom the German team Dortmund added to their squad for 35 million euros just one season ago.
Transfer of Kylian Mbappe from Monaco to Paris Saint – Germain (PSG):
- Season: 2018/2019
- Officially paid testimonial: 145 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 120 million euros
Kylian Mbappe, one of the shining stars of the last period and the future, did not go unnoticed by the French giant Paris Saint-Germain. PSG, which generously opens its mouth for star transfers every term, paid 145 million euros to Monaco in 2018 for Mbappe. No one doubts that Mbappe, who has already been compared to Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, will increase his transfer fee even more in the coming years.
Transfer of Neymar from Barcelona to Paris Saint – Germain (PSG):
- Season: 2017/2018
- Officially paid testimonial: 222 million euros
- Transfermarkt market value at that time: 100 million euros
Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), struggling in the French League Ligue 1, got used to star football players after being sold to Qatar Capital, but no one expected this much. Even though Barcelona did not want to send Neymar from the team in the 2017/18 season, the French team paid the 222 million euro release fee and added the star player to their squad. This fee of 222 million euros meant breaking a record in football history. This transfer of Neymar still remains the first transfer for which the highest transfer fee is paid.
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