Selling pressure continues on Bitcoin (BTC), which lost the support of $ 40,000 last Saturday. It even fell below $38,000 before it had a chance to rebound. For now, let’s take a look at some on-chain signals that can help us predict future price movements as the price is extremely volatile.
Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain metrics
On-chain analyst Ali Martinez draws attention to stagnant price movements for Bitcoin, adjusted for some assets, using data from Glassnode. In his recent analysis, Martinez shared:
According to Entity-Adjusted DF data, old hands have significantly lowered their BTC spending behavior. A resting value of 250,000 or less indicates a solid historical buy zone for BTC. Since January 6, Bitcoin’s idle value has dropped below 250,000 and currently stands at 228k.
Bitcoin’s recovery path will not be simple. BTC needs to surpass certain key resistances for $40,000 and more.
Risks to the downside
The recent behavior of Bitcoin whales indicates that we may be on the verge of a major correction. Citing data from Santiment, crypto analyst Ali Martinez says:
Since February 1, the number of whales holding 100 to 100,000 BTC in the network has not changed. These wealthy market participants don’t seem to be interested in buying BTC at current prices and may be waiting for a price cut.
The analyst’s predicted levels in Bitcoin (BTC) price trend based on technical charts include:
Bitcoin hits Tom DeMark’s setup trendline around $33.5k. It can challenge or seek support at $37,000, around 200MA on the 3-day chart. If BTC fails to hold above this key support zone, a series of liquidations could occur in the futures market, pulling BTC further down.
Many analysts think we are at the beginning of the second “crypto winter” based on the recent Bitcoin price behavior. The CEO of crypto exchange Huobi stated that there will not be a Bitcoin bull run until late 2024 or early 2025. You can access Du Jun’s analysis, which we transferred as Kriptokoin.com, here.
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