Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week in an uncertain place facing uncertain times. So, what could affect the price action of BTC, SHIB, ETH and altcoins in the coming days? Here are the various factors…
Have BTC, SHIB and altcoins been affected by global developments?
As we reported on Kriptokoin.com at the beginning of the week, the key external event for risk assets was the French election, which was won by incumbent Emmanuel Macron. Macron’s second term is expected to boost French stocks, especially at the opening on April 25, which breathes a sigh of relief for market players who are worried about the surprise victory of his far-right rival Marine Le Pen. While the EU, like the US, is facing strong inflation and falling bond markets, the European Central Bank (ECB) still does not take decisive steps to raise interest rates or shrink its balance sheet close to 10 trillion dollars.
Altcoins like SHIB, ETH and Bitcoin have been slack in Macron victory and risk assets are struggling with the April 25 downturn as the COVID-19 sentiment in China shakes. While crypto massively is heavily correlated with stock market movements at the moment, as market commentator Holger Zschaepitz points out, even before the April 25 losses, the past week has been painful for stocks
against BTC, SHIB, ETH and altcoins. dollar strength is back
One component of the macro landscape that is firmly in bullish mode has been the US dollar, which has upset crypto traders. The US dollar index (DXY) now appears to continue its uptrend after swaying at a two-year high last week. The strength of the dollar has not been very positive for Bitcoin. “It looks like DXY developer has announced a token burn,” joked popular trader Crypto Ed in response to the latest move.
Investor’s Podcast Network host Preston Pysh “We applied Yield Curve Control to the BOJ as the yen crashed and we are about to raise the FED by 50 basis points as the dollar hits new highs. It definitely feels like something is about to break…”
Weekly chart creates fourth red candle: first since 2020!
While Bitcoin managed to avoid significant volatility over the weekend, the weekly close was still disappointing and came just below last week. Still, this means that there are four consecutive red candles on the weekly chart. According to the data, this is something Bitcoin has not seen since June 2020. Traders are watching various chart features for clues to the pair’s next direction, but bullish signals are certainly few and far between. According to popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, what will cause more losses for Bitcoin is the emergence of the Ichimoku cloud.
Popular trader Cheds, who is the author of Trading Wisdom, meanwhile, has seen a potential crossover below the 200-period moving average on the three-day chart. He argued this would be important over the weekend as this was the latest 2018 bear market low after a bull run. “Not a guess, just an observation,” he warned. On December 2018 and its $3,100 base, Matthew Hyland, known as Parabolic Matt on Twitter, made further comparisons between that period and the current BTC price action. He said holding $37,600 on longer timeframes is now “crucial”.
Hodlers set a new record
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The data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin supply that has been dormant for at least a year is at an all-time high. Citing figures from the on-chain analysis firm Glassnode, economist Jan Wuestenfeld said this means supply is “obsolete” in a broader sense. Proportionally, more money is held longer rather than spent. According to
Glassnode, supply, which has been idle for a year or more, has broken a record 64% for the first time. HODL Waves, a Glassnode indicator, confirms the trend. Since December 2021, the 1-2-year supply segment has increased more than any other – from less than 10 percent this week to about 15 percent as of this week.
What are the key factors in the Bitcoin network?
A look at Bitcoin’s network fundamentals shows that miners are also nothing short of bearish when it comes to investing. Bitcoin’s network hash rate and difficulty will hit all-time highs this week. Based on price performance, the difficulty will adjust by about 2.9 percent in two days, setting a new record of 29.32 trillion in the process.
The challenge that underlines the mining participation competition is the hash rate participation rate, which is an estimate of the highest ever blockchain dedicated processing power. Estimates vary by source, but raw data from MiningPoolStats underscores the “up-only” trend when it comes to hash rate – some argue it’s a major trigger for subsequent bullish price performance.
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