The trading range for Bitcoin remains stable. Meanwhile, she starts the last week of October in average mood. But the longer the status quo lasts, the more convinced commentators are that a major trend change is coming. So, what are the five things to keep in mind while tracking Bitcoin price action this week? Here are the details… You can see the Bitcoin (BTC) price and detailed market data here.
Highest weekly close for Bitcoin since early September
Bitcoin presented an interesting price behavior to its October 23 weekly close. BTC/USD saw its biggest “green” hourly candle a few days before peaking at $19,700. It managed to rise around $19,580 for the first time since the beginning of September, becoming the highest level in Bitcoin. For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of Eight trading firm, it is time to say goodbye to BTC, which is moving within a certain range. The analyst used the following statements:
The week ahead is a big week of all events, making it almost inevitable for us to break out of range. I’m watching this last stand. It needs to be broken, then the party can begin.
The order book data told a similar story. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn analyzed trader behavior on Binance. She pointed out that the whales draw liquidity from the designated price corridor. She pointed out that the whales are selling and the liquidity in the range is decreasing. Material Indicators, which monitors the liquidity changes in the order books, also noted that the resistance level corresponding to Bitcoin’s all-time high in 2017 has softened. Meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Jackis made a “crazy” November forecast for Bitcoin. He conveyed that after a long horizontal movement, the time for change will always come.
Fed and ECB prepare for rate hike decision
The FED and ECB are behind Van de Poppe’s promise of a “big” week in terms of macroeconomic events. On October 28, the September Index of United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will be released. While traditionally not as effective as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for crypto markets, the PCE still comes in at a critical point this time around. The next week, the Fed; He will hold a meeting where he will decide on interest rate increases based on certain data, including PCE and CPI.
#Bitcoin still stuck in this range.
Coming week is a large one with all the events, which almost makes it inevitable that we'll break out of the range.
I'm watching this final resistance. It needs to break, and then, the party can start. pic.twitter.com/dsnyGFLdkt
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 23, 2022
The market is currently mostly expecting another 75 basis points increase. However, rumors emerged last week that the Fed’s stance will be softened. Any policy relaxation is considered to provide comfort for the risky asset category that cryptocurrencies are included in. Developer James Bull states that the average BTC bear market lasted 12.5 months and we are now in the 11th month. He thinks this timeline could go in parallel, as a result of rumors that the Fed is considering stopping the rise in interest rates.
Meanwhile, outlining expectations from the Fed, Charlie Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, confirmed that 75 basis points would not reappear after early November. According to the expert, interest rate cuts will start in December 2023 – will continue in 2024. Beyond the US, on October 27 came news of a press conference from the European Central Bank (ECB). Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, will deliver a speech. The eurozone is currently dealing with record inflation of over 20 percent.
Latest situations in the Bitcoin network
Coming back to Bitcoin, there is a feeling of unease over its network fundamentals and the health of the mining industry. According to the data, the hashrate is at all-time highs. But growth is likely unsustainable. Also, there will be a cost. Despite the overall decline in spot price action, miners are allocating more and more computing power to Blockchain. This means that already weak profit margins are shrinking further and smaller miners risk abandoning ship due to lost financial incentives.
It can be assumed that the asset, whose hash rate is rising, still has enough capital to make a profit despite the current state of the network. “The Bitcoin hashrate is definitely fluctuating,” William Clemente, co-founder of research firm Reflexivity Research, said over the weekend. “I wonder who thinks mining is advantageous as the BTC price drops 70 percent,” he said.
Then, commentator Steve Barbour came to an unusual conclusion. “Friends, Russia. Russia is where the hashrate is going,” he said. “Manufacturers have admitted to selling more ASICs to Russia lately than to the United States,” he added. According to MiningPoolStats, the hashrate is currently over 270 exahash per second (EH/s), while BTC.com offers an estimate of 259 EH/s. Thanks to the added hashrate, the difficulty increased another 3.44 percent on October 24 to reach an all-time high of 36.84 trillion.
Is the bear market over for investors?
Miners may not have discovered the world of capitulation yet. However, according to one analysis, capitulations have already occurred for the average Bitcoin hodler. Judging by the data covering the BTC supply, trading resource Game of Trades concluded that bear market pain has already entered. BTC’s 30-day moving average is now at nearly all-time highs, according to data that doesn’t account for lost or long-term coins.
A chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode put the tally of losses above 8 million BTC. Responses highlighted that the figure is lower when circulating supply is used. Game of Trades acknowledged that the June low of $17,600 was a “main capitulation event.” Glassnode also confirms that the amount of BTC supply, which has been idle for at least five years now, is higher than ever at 25.47%.
“Uptober” did not happen
There is little interest in the “Uptober”, which did not happen compared to October 2021. As we reported on Kriptokoin.com, Uptober points out that historically, the BTC price rose in October. At current prices, BTC/USD is just 0.36 percent away from the start of the month. This shows how volatile Bitcoin is. Data from the Coinglass data source shows October 2022 to be the flattest October by percentage. He states that he is in the shadow of last year, which gained 40 percent.
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