ADA, AXS, LINK, FTT and other selected altcoin projects, if Bitcoin holds the $45,000 level as support, a strong recovery could begin in the next few days.
Bitcoin exceeded 45 thousand dollars, what’s next?
Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to increase its second consecutive weekly gain and hit the highest weekly closing price since the year. According to on-chain data from Glassnode, the recovery in Bitcoin price was driven by demand in the spot markets. This is likely to cheer the bulls up as history shows that spot market demand is consistently up. Another positive sign is the strong demand for the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy exchange-traded fund (BITO) over the past two weeks, which has driven its exposure to a record high. Arcane Research said the strong inflows “indicated an increased appetite for Bitcoin through traditional investment vehicles.”
Along with Bitcoin, the broader crypto space is also attracting investors. According to research firm Fundstrat, venture capital buyers pumped $4 billion into the crypto space in the last three weeks of February. Can buyers sustain the momentum and prolong the relief rally in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s take a look at the technical levels of the 4 altcoin projects, accompanied by analyst Rakesh Upadhyay.
Bitcoin and altcoin analysis
The long wick on Bitcoin’s March 25 candlestick shows that the bears are protecting the overall resistance at $45,400. A minor positive is that the bulls are not giving up much ground, which suggests that investors are not closing their positions in a hurry.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($42,025) is up and the relative strength index (RSI) is in positive territory, suggesting the bulls are in command. If buyers push the price above $45,400, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the ascending channel. This level could act as a hurdle again, but if the bulls break it, the pair could rise to the psychological level of $50,000. Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops from $45,400, the bears will attempt to push the pair to strong support at $42,594. This is an important level to watch on the downside because if the bulls switch to support it, a break above $45,400 is likely. The bears will have to push and sustain the price below the moving averages to signal that the bulls are pushing the back foot. The 4-hour chart
shows that the price has dropped from overhead resistance but the bulls are not allowing the pair to drop below the 20-EMA. This shows that traders are buying on every small dip. The ascending moving averages and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest the path of least resistance to the upside. This positive view will be invalidated in the short term if the price breaks and stays below the 20-EMA. In this case, the pair could drop to $42,594.
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano (ADA) has been holding $1 above the critical level for the past few days. This suggests that bulls who may have bought at lower levels are not aggressively booking profits as they expect the recovery to continue.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, suggesting the bulls have prevailed. If buyers push and sustain the price above $1.26, the bullish momentum could increase and the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the next critical resistance at $1.60. Alternatively, if the altcoin price drops from $1.26 but recovers from $1, it indicates that the pair could remain in the range for a few more days. The bears will have to push and sustain the price below the moving averages to invalidate the bullish outlook. The 4-hour chart
shows the bears aggressively defending the overhead resistance at $1.20, but a minor positive is that the bulls have not let the price stay below the 20-EMA. If the price rises from the current level, the bulls will again attempt to clear the barrier at $1.20 and push the pair to $1.26. Alternatively, if the price drops and breaks below the 20-EMA, it indicates that the bullish momentum is weakening. The pair could then gradually decline towards the strong $1 support.
Axie Infinity (AXS)
Axie Infinity (AXS) has been trading between $72 and $44 for the past few days. Buyers pushed the price above the overhead resistance on March 25 but failed to sustain higher. This indicates that the bears are fiercely defending the level.
The moving averages have completed the bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, giving buyers an advantage. If the price rises from the current level or bounces back from the 20-day EMA ($56), the bulls will again try to push the AXS/USDT pair above $72. If they do, the upside could gain momentum and the pair could rally to $100. This positive view will be invalidated if the price continues to decline and falls below the 20-day EMA. This could keep the pair range-bound for a few more days. The 4-hour chart
shows that the bulls pushed the price above the overhead resistance at $72 but failed to sustain higher. This may have attracted profit booking by short-term investors who drove the price below the 20-EMA. If the price rises from the current level and rises above $68, it will suggest accumulation on the downside. Buyers will then attempt to break through the $72 barrier and start a fresh upward move. Contrary to this assumption, if the price stays below the 20-EMA, the correction could extend to the 50-simple moving average.
Chainlink (LINK)
Chainlink (LINK) has been trading in a huge range between $13 and $36 for the past few months. The bears have not been able to sustain the decline, despite pulling the price below the support of the range. This indicates that the markets are rejecting the lower levels.
The moving averages have completed the bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting buyers have the upper hand. The rally may face resistance at the downtrend line, but if this hurdle is cleared, the LINK/USDT pair could rise to $20. Alternatively, if the price drops from the current level, the moving averages will likely act as strong support. If the altcoin price rebounds, the probability of a break above the downtrend line may increase. This positive view will be invalidated if the bears pull the price below the moving averages. This could open the doors for a possible drop to $13.
The bears are forming a strong defense at $16.50 but a minor positive is that the buyers did not allow the price to drop below the 50-SMA. If the price rises from the current level or bounces back from the moving averages, the bulls will try to push the pair above $16.50. If they are successful, the pair could rally to $17.50. Contrary to this assumption, if the price drops below the 50-SMA, it will suggest that the short-term bulls may be closing their positions. There is a minor support at $15 but if it leads, the pair could drop to $14.
FTX Token (FTT)
FTX Token (FTT) broke and closed above $49 on March 24 and completed an ascending triangle formation, as we have covered in the cryptokoin.com analysis. Although buyers pushed the price above the psychological resistance at $50 on March 25, they were unable to sustain higher.
This shows that the bears have not given up yet and continue to sell at higher levels. The bears will now try to push and sustain the price below $49. If they manage to do so, the aggressive bulls who bought the breakout from the triangle could be trapped. This could bring the FTT/USDT pair down to the 20-day EMA ($45). If the altcoin price bounces back from this level, buyers will again try to clear the overhead resistance zone at $49 to $52 and continue its upward move. Conversely, if the price dips below the moving averages, it indicates that the bears are attempting a strong reversal. A break and close below the bullish line of the triangle will invalidate the bullish pattern. The pair could drop to $39 later on.
The rally above $51 pushed the RSI into the overbought zone. Usually, such moves are followed by a sharp correction or consolidation. If the bears pull the price below $49, the pair could drop further to the 50-SMA. If the price bounces back from this level, buyers will try to push the pair back above $52 and continue the upward move. On the other hand, if the bears pull the price below the 50-SMA, selling could intensify and the pair could drop to $45.
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