As Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $22,000 on Monday, it is debated whether this zone is the bottom. While the current trend is to the upside at the moment, a few major investors are careful not to rush into positions right now. In this regard, Grayscale has prepared a report on how long the bear market will last.
Historical bear periods of the cryptocurrency market
Large companies investing in cryptocurrencies have observed that crypto markets flow in cycles, just like financial markets. On average, the cycles of the crypto market last about four years. Experts also say that the realized price of Bitcoin is effective in measuring cycle time. Realized prices in Bitcoin are the sum of all purchase values divided by the number of BTC currently in circulation.
The Grayscale report shows that Bitcoin realized prices fell below the market price last week. This signals the arrival of a bear market. The report also suggested that the bear market could extend for up to eight months after that. Accordingly, if the old cycles repeat, the bear market that started in June will continue for another 250 days. According to Grayscale’s analysis:
As of June 13, the realized Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped below the market price, signaling that we may have officially entered a bear market. With only 21 days into this zone, we may see 250-day high-value buying opportunities compared to previous cycles.
When will Bitcoin surpass the bear market?
According to the current cycle that started in 2020, the report suggests that Bitcoin will wait another four months until it rises again. There is a possibility that the realized price will rise above the market price again after four months.
222 have passed since Bitcoin’s November peak. This means that we may see “5-6 months further down or sideways price action” until the next bull market. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price action in the ATH range last year was longer than previous cycles. Grayscale says this is due to the “increasing maturity of the crypto market” this time around.
According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC price has increased by 4.13% compared to the last 24 hours, trading at $ 22,134.01. It has gained more than 7% since last week. Meanwhile, Ethereum price has gained 30% since last week. ETH is currently trading at $1,482.25. As quoted by Kriptokoin.com, the price of ETH briefly exceeded $ 1,500 during the day.
Last month, US SEC officials refused approval to convert Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust into a spot ETF. Following this, Grayscale took legal action against the commission.
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