Diabetes cases are likely to skyrocket over the next few decades, according to a new study out this week.
The research estimates that by 2050, more than one billion people worldwide will be living with the chronic condition, roughly twice the number of cases seen today. Diabetes prevalence is expected to be particularly high in parts of Africa and the Middle East, but dozens of countries may also experience significant increases.
What is diabetes, what does Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes mean?
Diabetes is defined simply as having chronically high blood sugar levels. This is usually due to a problem with our production or response to insulin, a hormone that helps move sugar from the bloodstream to our cells. For example, people with type 1 diabetes have an overzealous immune system that attacks the cells responsible for producing insulin. People with type 2 diabetes develop a resistance to the effects of insulin and may eventually stop insulin production altogether.
Thanks to medications and better blood sugar monitoring, in most cases, diabetes is no longer the deadly disease it used to be. However, it can still lead to serious problems such as nerve damage and chronic kidney disease, especially if not managed well. It also appears to increase the likelihood of many other health conditions, including heart attack, stroke, and dementia. The burden of diabetes will continue to increase in the future, according to the authors of a study published Thursday in The Lancet.
The research was organized by scientists at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. To arrive at these estimates, the team used the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease study, a long-term research project also led by IHME that seeks to track the prevalence and harm caused by many health conditions and diseases.
Current prevalence is 6.1 percent
According to GBD data, there were approximately 529 million people worldwide living with diabetes in 2021. After adjusting for age, the current global prevalence appeared to be around 6.1%. But the authors say that by 2050, 1.31 billion people will have some form of diabetes. The highest age-standardized prevalence for a large region is estimated to be in North Africa and the Middle East at 16.8%, but rates will be above 10% in about half of the world’s 200+ countries and regions.
Liane Ong, lead research scientist at IHME and lead author of the study, said in a statement released by the organization, “The rapid increase in diabetes is not only alarming but challenging for every healthcare system in the world, especially given how the disease increases the risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke.” said.
More than 95% of these cases are expected to be type 2 diabetes. The most important risk factor associated with type 2 is high body mass index. But the authors note that many other important factors, including low levels of exercise, poor diet, and a person’s genetics, can influence the risk of developing diabetes and the potential harm or death it can cause. The authors say that preventing or managing diabetes cases now and in the future will require widespread improvements in our environment and the availability of healthcare.
“Some people may be quick to focus on one or more risk factors, but this approach does not take into account the conditions in which people are born and live that create worldwide inequalities,” says IHME research fellow Lauryn Stafford. affecting. That’s exactly why we need a more complete picture of how diabetes affects populations.”
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