If current trends continue, hot weather will kill many more Americans each year, according to recent research. In a bad but possible climate scenario, it is estimated that the United States could see 200,000 heat-related deaths per year by the end of the century. And of course, although this prediction seems to be specific to the USA, it actually concerns the whole world. Still, death rates can be significantly reduced by making cities more adaptable to heat.
The study was conducted by researchers at Texas A&M University and the University of Illinois at Chicago and was published last month in the journal GeoHealth. Based on data collected from more than 100 mid- to large-sized cities, the authors created models of what heat-related deaths might occur in the U.S. under a variety of different climate predictions. First, they focused on a future in which global average warming rises to 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100: a not-so-bad scenario that could be on track to be achieved without aggressive measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions or other drastic solutions.
Most heat-related deaths in the United States these days are due to exposure to cold, not heat. So, at least to a certain point, it is possible that generally warmer winters will prevent some deaths and offset the increased deaths caused by warmer summers. The authors predicted that this milestone would be reached in a future when the world is 3 degrees Celsius warmer. From now on, the number of new deaths will depend on how well people and cities adapt to the climate.
The authors found that over the last decade, from 2011 to 2020, there were approximately 45,800 heat-related deaths per year in the United States. They estimate that in a scenario where the world becomes 3 degrees Celsius warmer with little adaptation, there would be around 200,000 heat-related deaths each year.
It was also calculated that most of this projected increase was due to a growing and aging population rather than the direct effects of climate change alone. However, climate change will significantly change the way many cities experience the seasons. In the southern states, where summer temperatures are already very high, many areas have a lot of infrastructure, such as air conditioning, to help people cool down. But as the same temperatures become commonplace across the Northern U.S., ill-prepared cities are expected to see many more deaths.
“We found that in the future, heat-related deaths will increase in the northern United States, mostly due to increases in heat-related deaths,” lead author Jangho Lee, a climate scientist at the University of Illinois at Chicago, told the study’s publishers, the American Geophysical Union.
Despite a growing and aging U.S. population, the majority of these deaths are still preventable in a 3-degree Celsius future, the authors note. They estimate that about 28% of deaths could be prevented if northern cities adapted as well as those in the south by 2100. Of course, this is a goal that is much easier said than done.
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