BitMEX, one of the major cryptocurrency exchanges, has published a new blog post. The post marks the end of the bear market for Bitcoin. Here are the details…
BitMEX announces when Bitcoin price drop will end
Crypto trading platform BitMEX has revealed a metric that it says could mark the end of the bear market. In a new blog post, BitMEX says that based on Bitcoin’s Market Cap to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV), BTC is currently in the early part of its bear cycle compared to previous bear markets. As we have also reported as Kriptokoin.com, MVRV is the ratio of the market value of an asset to the actual market value. It’s not the current price, but the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were bought at.
According to the post, BitMEX talks about three other significant bear market cycles seen in BTC’s history. When they measure them with MVRV, it turns out that the price remained below the actual price for an average of 244 days. However, it is stated that these forecasts do not include the bear market in March 2020. At that time, the drop in BTC, even the sudden drop, was due to the coronavirus panic. BitMEX uses the following expressions:
Looking at the other three major bear market cycles and measuring them by Market Cap to Realized Value, the price has been below the actual price for an average of 244 days. (This forecast does not include the period of March 2020 in the third bear market.) We are now less than 30 days away and the price is below the actual price.
Expected recovery after early next year
The crypto firm says the current Bitcoin bear cycle “does not look that different” from previous cycles, despite different macroeconomic conditions. According to BitMEX, Bitcoin could start to recover from early next year based on the average period of previous bear cycles. The exchange uses the following expressions:
The 244-day blended average of previous time-based capitulation periods (long periods below the average market participant cost floor) will see Bitcoin’s recovery above the realized price level take place as early as February 2023. While much has been written about the macroeconomic backdrop regarding the Bitcoin market, this Bitcoin cycle ironically doesn’t look all that different from the cycles of the past.
The primary cryptocurrency had jumped to a multi-week high of $22,500. After the middle of last week, the landscape took a bleak turn. Within days, the asset slumped below the enviable $20,000 line. After the US released record-breaking CPI figures earlier this week, BTC once again experienced volatility. It fell below $19,000. However, this was short-lived as the bulls returned to the scene. Bitcoin jumped to $20,000 yesterday. Although he couldn’t get it back decisively at first, he got that level in the last 12 hours.
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