Analyst Alfonso Peccatiello says the Federal Reserve made a ‘policy mistake’ this year by transitioning to an economy that is already slowing. However, the famous analyst states that Bitcoin (BTC) will see a significant pullback. We have prepared Alfonso Peccatiello’s market comments for Kirptokoin.com readers.
Analyst expects the economy to slow down and Bitcoin (BTC) to drop to $26,000
The analyst and author of The Macro Compass Newsletter, Alfonso Peccatiello, said that the bond market has been speaking very clearly since last summer, that the economy has He states that he said he was slowing down. According to the analyst, the growth impulse has slowed since the summer of last year. “We are still growing, slightly above the trend, but the driving force of this growth has slowed,” the analyst comments. Alfonso Peccatiello states that fixed income markets are showing signs of this slowdown and makes the following assessment:
He talks about the bond market yield curve. The yield curve is flattening very aggressively. The gap between the 5 to 30 year portion of the yield curve has flattened to very aggressive levels. In one metric I tracked, it actually reversed two sessions ago.
The analyst notes that inflation should also slow down and moderate in the second half of this year due to the slowdown in credit growth, which means that the rate of new money creation is slowing down:
In 2020 and 2021 we got a huge boost in credit creation like a Ferrari. But now we are slowing down over time in creating credit. No new major financial incentives. There is no new big bank loan and that’s why we have this abyss. Unless governments continue to push at the same pace and banks continue to lend at the same pace, there is always a credit gap in every credit boom.
Alfonso Peccatiello says that when central banks enter an economic slowdown, risk assets tend to underperform, saying that Bitcoin (BTC) will see a significant pullback:
I have a Bitcoin short position in my portfolio. I aim for Bitcoin to drop to $26,000. At the beginning of the year we almost went there, we went for $30,000. We haven’t reached my goal yet. I’m still short and I think we’re going to see quite a drop and the reason is always the same. If you go into an economic slowdown, you reduce people’s marginal risk appetite for very high beta risk assets like Bitcoin.
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