Experts predict that there may be a shortage in global lithium supply due to the increasing production of electric cars. The rapid increase in demand, especially in large markets such as China, may lead the world to face a lithium shortage as soon as 2025.
In the report prepared by BMI analysts, “We expect China’s lithium demand for electric vehicles only to increase by 20.4% annually between 2023 and 2032”. On the other hand, it is stated that China’s lithium supply will increase by only 6% over the same period, and this rate will not be able to meet even one-third of the projected demand.
China is the world’s third largest producer of lithium, an indispensable component of electric vehicle batteries. In 2021, 540,000 tons of lithium were produced worldwide. However, the World Economic Forum estimates that global demand will exceed 3 million tons by 2030.
There are only 101 lithium mines worldwide
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis, worldwide electric vehicle sales will increase to 13.8 million units in 2023, and this sales figure will exceed 30 million by 2030. “We expect a shortage of lithium. Of course we expect supply to increase, but demand will increase much faster,” says Corinne Blanchard, director of research at Deutsche Bank.
According to Blanchard, this deficit will remain modest, at 40-60 thousand tons by 2025, but may reach 768 thousand tons by 2030. Other analysts believe that an increase in lithium mining projects could delay the market crunch for several years. According to the latest data from Refinitiv, there are currently only 101 lithium mines in the world.
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