According to the previous results of the market participants survey, the dollar expectation for the end of 2021 was 8.92 TL. However, this expectation was reached months ago. According to the October survey, the expectation of a new dollar-TL rate for the end of 2021 rose to 9.22.
According to the results of the survey organized by the Central Bank, there is an increase in both year-end and 24-month post-year inflation and CPI expectations.
The expectation of a record increase in the dollar may also push inflation and CPI up:
- In the previous survey, 2021 year-end inflation expectation was 16.74%, the new expectation rose to 17.93%.
- CPI expectation for the next 12 months was 12,94% compared to the previous survey, and 13,91% with the new survey.
- Inflation expectation after 24 months increased from 10.27% to 10.71%.
- Gross Domestic Product expectation for the end of 2021 rose to 8.9% from 8.2%.
- The growth expectation for 2022 remained at the level of 4.2%.
Let us state that these results are according to the survey organized by the Central Bank, including the participants in the market. It is also noteworthy that the expectations in the domestic market remained stable while the IMF raised Turkey’s 2022 growth forecast.
What do these numbers mean, how will technological products with dollar-based prices be affected?
Due to the increase in the dollar in recent years, the prices of end-user products such as smart phones, computers and tablets, whose prices are fixed abroad, have gradually increased in our country. Now the psychological limit for a good phone is 10,000 TL or even more. Although the manufacturing companies put their products on sale with a lower profit margin in order to compensate for the exchange rate difference in Turkey, when taxes are added, the amount that comes out of the consumer’s pocket continues to increase gradually.
The survey results also concern all companies that bring technological products to Turkey. Not immediately, but we expect to see price increases for smartphones, computers, tablets and other tech products in the coming months, especially in December and January.
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