The price of Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits a classic bull market movement that has been progressing with gradual rise since the beginning of 2023. In this process, the price climbed to new peaks after being consolidated at certain levels. The current consolidation range is between 90,000 to 100,000 dollars, and investors think that the range will end upwards like the previous bull breaks. However, three important developments that have emerged in the recent period question this expectation. Here are the three developments that should be considered in the coming period according to Analyst Omkar Godbole.
The first of the critical developments for the price of Bitcoin: The narrowing of US dollars liquidity
In general, markets, especially crypto assets, negatively meet the tightening of Fiat liquidity. According to Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom’s chief investment manager, the liquidity contraction in the US dollar threatens the rise of Bitcoin. The cash balance (TGA), which the US Treasury Ministry of Treasury held at the FED, rose from $ 623 billion to 800 billion dollars in the last four weeks. In the past, when the United States reached the ceiling of the debt, it would reduce the TGA balance and provided liquidity to the market. However, this time liquidity is controlled more closely. Blockchain expert Anddy Lian said, “Key is establishing liquidity resources or strictly controlled. This can lead to slowdown in economic activities, increased borrowing costs and a more challenging environment for risky assets, including crypto. ”
BTC reserve move from Trump administration did not come
US President Donald Trump quickly implemented many election promises since January 2025, when he took office. However, the promise of creating a Bitcoin reserve has not yet been implemented. The Trump administration initially supports the Bitcoin reserve plan, while the latest explanations show that the process is only in the “evaluation” stage. Bianco Research President Jim Bianco, “Trump, Bitcoin will create a reserve, he said, only ‘we will evaluate’ did not say. Washington’s word uses when he doesn’t want to do something, ‘assessment’ would be, ”he reacted. After this development, the price of Bitcoin fell out of $ 100,000 to $ 96,000.
The formation in 2021 reappeared
According to Godbole, there is a worrying development on the technical analysis front. Bitcoin’s 14 -week Relative Power Index (RSI), similar to the peak formation in 2021, tends to decline. Despite the price increase, the RSI creates a lower peak and exhibits negative incompatibility. This indicates that the bull momentum is weakened. When a similar scenario took place in 2021, the Bitcoin bull market ended. This negative technical structure will be invalid if RSI only breaks the downward trend line upward. Otherwise, Bitcoin seems likely to enter a new correction process.
