The strength of the US dollar continues to negatively affect risk assets. However, that hasn’t stopped altcoins, including Bitcoin and DOGE, from staging several strong rallies this week. Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay examines the charts of the 8 biggest cryptocurrencies.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
Investors fear the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes could cause an economic downturn. As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, the yield curve between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bills, which analysts watch closely to predict recessions, has inverted the most since 2000.
Amid all the turmoil, Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed both major indices. Accordingly, it is encouraging to see it falling less than 4% per week. Could this be a sign that the bottom of Bitcoin may be near?
Daily cryptocurrency market performance / Source: Coin360On-chain data shows that the amount of Bitcoin supply held at a loss by long-term holders has reached nearly 30%, which is between 2% and 5% below the level that coincided with Bitcoin’s bottom in March 2020 and December 2018. This metric shows that Bitcoin has more room to fall before it bottoms out. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB and XRP analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Buyers are buying the drop below $18,626 in Bitcoin. However, failing to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($19,841) suggests that the bears are not in the mood to give up their advantage. This raises the possibility of a retest of June lows at $17,622.
A break and close below $17,622 is likely to cause panic. In this case, BTC is likely to drop to the next major support at $14,500. The falling moving averages point to the advantage for the bears, while the positive divergence in the RSI indicates that selling pressure may be fading. This view is likely to strengthen if the bulls sustain and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA.
This is likely to push the price towards the overhead resistance zone between the 50-day SMA (21,200) and $22,799. Such a move would suggest that BTC could continue bottoming in the wide range between $17,622 and $25,211 for longer.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH has been trading within a descending channel pattern for the past few days. In a channel, traders usually buy near the support and sell near the resistance.
The bears tried to push the price below the channel on Sept. 21. However, the bulls successfully defended the level. The bulls will try to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($1,467) where they may face stiff resistance from the bears. If the price drops from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on every small rally. The bears will then try to push the price back below the channel and challenge the psychological support at $1000. On the contrary, ETH is likely to reach the resistance line of the channel if the price rises above the 20-day EMA. A break and close above the channel is likely to signal a potential trend reversal.
Binance Coin (BNB)
BNB has been hovering between the 20-day EMA ($276) and $258 for the past few days. This shows that the bulls are defending the immediate support at $258. However, they failed to push the price above the 20-day EMA.
This narrow gap trade is unlikely to continue for long. BNB is likely to rise to the resistance line of the descending channel if the buyers price rises above the 20-day EMA. The bulls will have to break through this hurdle to suggest that the correction phase may be over. BNB is likely to attempt a rally to $338 later. If the price breaks from the current level of the channel or the resistance line, the bears will try to push BNB back below $258. If they manage to do so, it is possible for BNB to drop to the support line.
Ripple (XRP)
XRP climbed above the overhead resistance of $0.41 on Sept. 20. The bears tried to trap the aggressive bulls on Sept. 21. But the buyers had other plans. They bought the dip lively and pushed the price above the overhead resistance on Sept.
The pattern target of the breakout in the $0.30 to $0.41 range was 0.52. XRP reached the same value on September 23. This sharp move pushes the RSI into overbought territory, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. The long wick on the September 23 candlestick indicates profit booking at higher levels. Usually, after a range breakout, the price tends to retest the breakout level. In this case, the price is likely to drop to $0.41. If the bulls turn this level into support, XRP will attempt to sustain the upward move. If the price rises above $0.56, the next stop is likely $0.66. On the other hand, a break below $0.41 indicates that the last break was a bear trap.
ADA, SOL, DOGE and DOT analysis
Cardano (ADA)
ADA bounced off the uptrend line on Sept. This shows that the bulls are fiercely defending this level. The price reached near the downtrend line on September 23. However, the long wick on the candlestick indicates that the bears are active at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($0.46) has started to drop and the RSI is just below the midpoint. This shows that there is a small advantage for the bears. If the price continues to decline and dips below the bullish line, a drop to $0.40 is possible. This is an important level for the bulls to defend. Because a break below this is likely to continue the downtrend. If the bulls want to gain the upper hand, they will have to sustain the price above the downtrend line. ADA is likely to rally to $0.60 later on, where the bears could form stiff resistance again.
Left (LEFT)
The SOL is stuck between the 20-day EMA ($33) and the close support at $30. This indicates a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
This uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long. The bears will try to take control by pushing the price below $30. If this happens, SOL is likely to drop to strong support at $26. The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively. Because if this support breaks, SOL is likely to witness panic selling and drop to $20. To invalidate this negative view in the short term, buyers will need to push the price above the moving averages and overhead resistance at $39. If they are successful, it is possible for SOL to rise to $48.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Buyers bought the dip below the immediate support on Sept. 21. But they are struggling to keep Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on September 23. This shows that the bears continue to sell in the rallies.
DOGE bears will try to leverage their advantage by pushing the price below the immediate support near $0.06. If they do, it’s possible they could extend the DOGE dip to the June low of $0.05. This is a very important level. Because a break below this indicates the start of the next leg of the downtrend. Conversely, if the price continues above the 20-day EMA, the DOGE could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.07). If the bulls pierce this resistance, DOGE is likely to rise towards $0.09.
Polkadot (DOT)
Buyers successfully defended the critical support of $6 on September 21 and 22. But the shallow bounce shows demand drying up at higher levels. The longer Polkadot (DOT) trades below the 20-day EMA (6.87), the more likely it is to break below $6.
If the bears push the price down and hold it below $6, it is possible that the selling momentum will increase. In this case, the DOT is likely to continue its downtrend. The next major support on the downside is $4. Alternatively, if the price bounces back from $6 or rises sharply after falling below the support, it indicates that the bulls are continuing to buy lower. The bulls will need to push the price above the moving averages to clear the way for a possible upside move to $10, which is likely to act as a barrier again.
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