Crypto markets seem to be losing some of their recent bullish momentum. But there is a positive headwind coming from the stock markets. According to crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay, this could trigger a breakout in Bitcoin and certain altcoins like DOGE.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
It’s the last month of the year and the analysts you follow on Kriptokoin.com are making their predictions for the next year. In a note to investors, Standard Chartered suggested that the “financial market surprises of 2023” will include a drop in the price of Bitcoin to $5,000 at some point in the year. The drop will be triggered by a liquidity crisis that could lead to further bankruptcies and lower investor confidence in the crypto sector. If that sounds extreme, there are those who disagree, like venture capitalist Tim Draper. Draper says that Bitcoin’s rally will be driven by the increased participation of women, who control a large portion of individual spending.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance / Source: Coin360
However, in the short-term, analysts are divided over the prospects of a Bitcoin rally. Some analysts expect a Christmas rally to push Bitcoin towards $19,000. However, others are not so optimistic. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB and XRP analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin has been trading near the 20-day EMA of $16,979 for the past four days. It then tried to rise on December 5th. However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick indicates selling at higher levels.
The bears are expected to strongly defend the overhead zone between the $17,622 and the 50-day SMA of $18,223. If the price turns down from the zone but does not drop below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that traders are buying on the dips. It is possible that this would increase the probability of a rally to $20,000 followed by $21,500. Alternatively, if the price breaks down from overhead resistance and dips below the 20-day EMA, this likely indicates that BTC will stay in the $15,476 to $18,200 range for a few days.
Ethereum (ETH)
The bears tried to push ETH below the 20-day EMA of $1,251 on Dec. But the bulls held their ground. This shows that buyers are aggressively defending the 20-day EMA.
The 20-day EMA has gradually started to rise and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This shows that the bulls have a slight advantage. Also, this increases the likelihood of a break above the $1,334 50-day SMA. If this happens, it is possible for ETH to gain momentum and rise towards the resistance line of the descending channel. However, it’s possible that this too will act as a major roadblock. On the downside, a break and close below $1,236 indicates the bears are attempting a reversal. ETH is likely to drop to $1,150 later.
Binance Coin (BNB)
BNB has been trading close to the moving averages for the past three days. This indicates a struggle between bulls and bears for supremacy.
The horizontal moving averages and RSI near the midpoint give neither the bulls nor the bears a clear advantage. Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above $300 to indicate strength. It is possible for BNB to rally to $318 and then to $338 later. Conversely, if the price declines and dips below $285, an intensification of selling is likely. Like this, BNB will likely drop to $275. There is little support at this level. However, if it fails to hold, the decline is likely to extend to the vital support at $250.
Ripple (XRP)
XRP is facing resistance at $0.41. However, it finds support at the uptrend line. The price action of the last few days has formed an ascending triangle pattern that will complete on a break and close above $0.41.
If this happens, it indicates a potential trend reversal. Also, it is possible for XRP to rally to $0.45 and then $0.51. Alternatively, if the price drops and dips below the uptrend line, it will invalidate the bullish setup. This is likely to bring the price down to $0.37 and then to $0.34. Such a move would likely suggest that XRP will extend its stay in the wide range between $0.30 and $0.41 for a few more days. The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also point to a consolidation in the near term.
ADA, DOGE, MATIC and DOT analysis
Cardano (ADA)
ADA broke above the 20-day EMA of $0.32 on Dec. However, the bulls failed to sustain higher levels. This suggests the bears are selling at charity rallies.
The bulls will need to hold the price above the 20-day EMA for the recovery to become stronger. It is possible for ADA to move higher to the 50-day SMA of $0.35 and then to the downtrend line. However, this level is likely to offer strong resistance to the bulls. The 20-day EMA has flattened and the RSI is just below the midpoint. This shows that there is a range-dependent action in the near term. The bears will have to push the price below $0.29 to signal a resumption of the downtrend.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE recovery broke above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.10. It also moved closer to the 50% retracement level of $0.11.
The long wick on the December 5 candlestick shows that the bears are defending the zone between the 50% retracement at $0.11 and the 61.8% retracement at $0.13. The first support line for DOGE to look out for on the downside is the 20-day EMA at $0.09. A strong rebound from this level will show lower levels attracting buyers. It will also be a sign that this increases the probability of a move above $0.13. DOGE could then complete the 100% retracement and rise to $0.16. This bullish view is invalidated if the DOGE price drops and dips below the moving averages.
Polygon (MATIC)
MATIC bounced off the 20-day EMA at $0.90 on Dec. This shows that the bulls are trying to turn the level to support.
The 20-day EMA has started to rise and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This suggests that buyers have a slight advantage. There is a minor resistance at $0.97. But MATIC is likely to surpass that. It is possible for MATIC to rally to $1.05 later. However, it is likely that the bears will try to stop the recovery here. If the price breaks down from $1.05, MATIC is likely to drop back to the 20-day EMA. A strong bounce is possible to increase the chances of a break above $1.05. Conversely, a break below the moving averages likely paves the way for a pullback to the bullish line.
Polkadot (DOT)
The DOT broke above the 20-day EMA of $5.54 on Dec. Also, the bulls successfully defended the retest on Dec. Meanwhile, buyers tried to push the price to the $5.92 50-day SMA on Dec. However, it has encountered significant resistance at higher levels.
etherealThe 20-day EMA has flattened and the RSI has moved up to the midpoint. This indicates that the downside momentum is weakening. Also, this increases the probability of a break above the 50-day SMA. If this level is surpassed, the DOT is likely to rise to the downtrend line. However, this level is likely to pose a major hurdle for the bulls. On the other hand, if the price drops and dips below the 20-day EMA, a drop to $5.30 and then $5 is possible for the DOT.
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