Altcoins, including Bitcoin and DOGE, are starting to signal a potential trend change. But Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay says a handful of downside risks remain. Will history repeat itself and will Bitcoin and altcoins drop again in December or will buyers peak and push the price higher? To get some insight, the analyst examines the top 10 cryptocurrencies.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, the US NFP increased by 263,000 in November, beating economists’ expectations for an increase of 200,000. Analysts say the numbers remain warm and do not allow much room for the Fed to slow down aggressive rate hikes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed will reduce the pace of rate hikes ‘until December’. However, the latest situation contradicts these words. Powell’s words triggered a sharp rally in risk assets. After the latest employment report, market participants will closely follow the Fed’s statements and decision at its December 13 and December 14 meeting.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
It is possible that the Fed’s decision will also affect BTC, which is in a tight bearish grip. Coinglass data reveals that Bitcoin’s monthly returns in November 2018, 2019 and 2021 were negative. It also shows that it was followed by another drop in December. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and ADA analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin rallied above the descending triangle and the 20-day exponential moving average ($16,949) on November 30. This is the first indication that the downtrend may be coming to an end.
The 20-day EMA has flattened and the relative strength index (RSI) is just below the midpoint. This shows that there is a balance between supply and demand. This balance shifts in favor of the bulls if they push the price above the overhead resistance of $17,622. If buyers hold the price above this level, BTC is likely to gain momentum and move up to the 50-day simple moving average ($18,349). This level is likely to act as a rally again, but BTC will pass. It is possible for BTC to move further north towards $21,500 later. If the bulls fail to push the price above $17,622, BTC is likely to remain range-bound for a while.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH continues to trade within the descending channel pattern. However, the bulls are trying to turn the short-term advantage in their favour. Buyers pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,245) on Nov. 30. This indicates that demand is at higher levels.
The bears will try to stop the recovery again at the 50-day SMA ($1.335). But there is a high probability of a break above it. If this happens, ETH is likely to rise to the resistance line of the channel. This level is likely to be a major hurdle for the bulls. Alternatively, failing to push the price above the 50-day SMA creates a possible opportunity for the bears to push ETH below the 20-day EMA. ETH is likely to retrace its recent gains and drop to $1,151 later.
Binance (BNB)
BNB bounced off the moving averages on November 29. However, the bulls failed to break through the overall barrier at $300. This shows that the bears are selling in relief rallies.
The price declined below the moving averages on Dec. Also, the bears are trying to push BNB below $286. If they do, it is possible for BNB to drop to $275 and then strong support at $258. Conversely, if the price rises from the current level and rises above $306, it indicates that buyers are attempting a reversal. BNB is likely to try to rise to $338 later. In the near term, the horizontal moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint point to a range formation.
Ripple (XRP)
XRP again failed to break above the overhead resistance of $0.41 on November 30 and December 1. This shows that the bears are fiercely defending the level.
XRP fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.40). Also, the bears will now try to push the price below $0.37. If they do, it is possible for XRP to extend its stay in the wide range of $0.30 to $0.41 for a few more days. On the other hand, if the price rises from the current level or $0.37, it will suggest buying on the dips. The bulls will then try to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.43) and will start to climb higher to $0.51.
Cardano (ADA)
ADA is consolidating in a downtrend. The bullish divergence in the RSI indicates that the selling pressure may ease and there may be a rebound on the cards.
If the price rises above the 20-day EMA ($0.32), it is possible for ADA to gain momentum. Thus, it can attempt a rally towards the downtrend line. The bears are likely to make a strong defense at this level. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. BNB is likely to drop back to $0.29 later.
DOGE, MATIC, DOT, LTC and UNI analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE recovery is facing resistance near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to $0.12. This indicates that the bears are active at higher levels.
DOGE price dropped to the $0.09 breakout level, which is an important level to watch out for. A strong bounce will show that the bulls have turned the level to support. Buyers will then try to push DOGE price back above $0.11 and continue the recovery. If successful, DOGE could rally to the 61.8% retracement level of $0.13. Conversely, if the price drops below $0.09, it will indicate the end of the recovery. The DOGE could then drop to the moving averages and then to $0.07.
Polygon (MATIC)
MATIC broke above the moving averages on November 30, suggesting that the bulls are making a comeback. The price fell on December 1, but the bulls are trying to turn the 20-day EMA ($0.89) to support.
If buyers push the price above $0.97, the recovery is likely to accelerate. MATIC is likely to rise to the overhead resistance at $1.05. This level is likely to act as a stumbling block. However, if the bulls propel the price above this, it is possible for MATIC to skyrocket towards $1.30. Instead, if the price drops from $0.97, the bears will make another attempt to push the MATIC below the moving averages. If this happens, MATIC is likely to retest support on the uptrend line.
Polkadot (DOT)
DOT is trying to recover in a downtrend. Buyers hesitated for two days near the 20-day EMA ($5.53). However, it later pushed the price above the resistance on December 2.
A rally to the 50-day SMA ($5.96) is possible for the DOT. This is likely to act as a minor hurdle, but for DOT to overcome. The DOT is likely to extend the relief rally to the downtrend line after that. A break and close above this resistance signals a potential trend change. The bears stopped the previous two recovery attempts at the downtrend line. Therefore, they are likely to try to defend the level again. If the bears want to regain control, they will need to push the price below the 20-day EMA and break the support at $5. The DOT is likely to drop to $4.32 later.
Litecoin (LTC)
LTC is trading above the $75 breakout level. However, the bulls are facing stiff resistance in the region between $80 and $84. This shows that the bears have not given up yet.
Upward sloping moving averages show advantages for buyers. However, the RSI is showing a bearish trend. This is likely an indication that the positive momentum is weakening. LTC is likely to be stuck between the 20-day EMA and $84 for a while. A consolidation near the overall resistance indicates that buyers are in no rush to take profits. So, usually this is a positive sign. If the bulls push the price above $84, it is possible for a new uptrend to start and LTC to rally to $104. Alternatively, if the price drops below $70, LTC is likely to start a decline to the 50-day SMA ($61).
Uniswap (UNI)
UNI broke above the 20-day EMA ($5.74) on Nov. 30. This is probably the first indication that the bears are losing control. Buyers will try to strengthen their position by pushing the price above the 50-day SMA ($6.17).
If they succeed, it is possible for UNI to rise to the resistance line. The bears are expected to defend this level with all their might. Because if they fail in their efforts, this will show that the symmetrical triangle has acted as a reversal pattern. UNI is likely to start a fresh upward move to $8 and then $10 later. This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price drops and dips below the 20-day EMA. It is possible that UNI will then retest the support line of the symmetrical triangle.
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