More than 34,000 Bitcoins (BTC) were moved from exchanges in one day. Also, for BTC, red September has ended and green October has begun. What do these mean for BTC price? Analysts comment and share their predictions.
There is a Bitcoin exit from the exchanges, what does it mean?
On-chain analytics firm Santiment announced that 34,723 BTC left the exchanges on September 30. It also reported that it marks the highest in more than three months and the fourth largest Bitcoin move in 2022.
https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1576473619424681985
Santiment states that it could point to trader confidence heading towards Q4. So, this remains a potentially bullish indicator for BTC. He states that the last time such a large amount of BTC left the exchanges, after which prices rose by almost 22% in the weeks that followed.
On-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant states that exchange reserves have decreased by more than 60,000 BTC in the past three days. He also notes that this remains the highest amount in months. He says it could be a sign that demand is returning to the market after months of price drops.
While stock market outflows remain positive, less supply on the stock markets could mean lower selling pressure from market participants. BTC is currently trading marginally at $19,281. After the lackluster price performance in September, sentiment among traders remains low. It is possible that this is another potential bullish indicator. However, crypto analyst Ali shares the following analysis, citing Santiment data:
The market sentiment for Bitcoin remains negative. Social data from Santimentfeed shows a weighted emotion score of -0.33. Talking about BTC on social media is well below 20%. This shows that interest in BTC is decreasing.
Historically, Bitcoin’s best quarter
Bitcoin remained lower, ending the month at $19,425. That’s why it couldn’t hold $20,000 at the close of September. Bitcoin lost 3.16% in September. It hasn’t shown any growth yet in October either. However, prices are down 1.64% so far. Analyst Will Clemente highlights a historically positive 4th quarter for Bitcoin. In this context, he makes the following statement:
Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s best performance, with an average yield of 103.9%. October and November were the best performing months with average returns of 24% and 58%. Does seasonality matter? Let’s see.
Analyst’s upside target of $20,500 remains
BTC is down another 0.7% so far on the ‘Uptober’ (October), according to data from on-chain data source Coinglass. Therefore, the monthly chart has not yet risen in October.
BTC monthly return chart / Source: CoinglassAs you follow on Kriptokoin.com, gloomy financial data from macro markets is adding to the lack of appetite for risk assets. The outlook among crypto traders also remained bleak. For the popular Twitter account Capo of Crypto, daily returns above the $20,000 mark are still possible. However, this will still be followed by a much lower dive.
In an additional post, it recorded $192,000 worth of stable purchases on the FTX exchange. He suggested that this could contribute to the short-term bullishness. Still, at the time of writing, BTC seems fit for volatility at the weekly close, as suggested by Bollinger Bands tightening on lower timeframes.
BTC 1-hour candlestick chart with Bollinger Bands / Source: TradingViewYet the September close continued the losing streak for Bitcoin, which rivaled the 2018 bear market, as highlighted by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics. The analyst shared the following on Twitter:
Bitcoin has officially produced 10 consecutive red monthly Heikin Ashi candles at the close of September. This is the longest series of this kind since the 2018 bear market, which produced 14 red candles from February 18 to March’19. Each bear market series has been longer than the last.
BTC 1-month Heikin Ashi candlestick chart / Source: TradingView
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