Macro guru Raoul Pal discussed the network value models for Bitcoin, XRP, ETH and DOT in his recent Twitter posts and shared his price predictions for the coming years that these metrics point to.
Raoul Pal says cryptocurrencies are growing much faster than internet
Macroeconomics expert Raoul Pal shares new data to update his numbers on global crypto adoption:
2021 was a year of accelerating growth and the even more exponential effect of Reed’s Law on networks built on networks is clear. But in the sixth year after the first five million users, crypto has 295 million participants and the internet has 119 million participants. While the internet is growing 76%, crypto is growing 137% a year. This is the fastest technology adoption the world has ever seen.
Network evolution of Bitcoin, XRP, ETH and DOT
Even as the growth of the crypto economy slows at the same pace as the internet expands, there will be a staggering five-year-old by 2030. reach billions of users. In addition, the equation tracks the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as XRP and Polkadot (DOT), quite well.
Bitcoin network value:
Ethereum
Ripple
Polkadot
Bitcoin and Ethereum competition
According to the economist, if the DApp ecosystem is widely adopted, Ethereum (ETH) will eventually be removed from Bitcoin can reach a larger market value. However, despite BTC being seen as a store of value, ETH has more applications and the per-month transaction value is generally in line with BTC. Therefore, if ETH attracts more users over time, it could catch up with BTC by market cap.
Bitcoin price predictions based on adoption
Pal also details specific price targets for Bitcoin based on various adoption rates going forward:
Assuming the BTC trend remains below one standard deviation, it gives a price target of $600,000. If it slows down to two standard deviations below the trend, you’d get about $300,000. Perhaps the regression trend should be taken from 2013 to avoid rising too early. This results in slower growth and lower targets. This gives a trend of $700,000, a standard deviation of $350,000, and two standard deviations of $200,000.
Pal says NFT communities can show the same growth metrics, and the main way to know if a crypto network is creating sustainable value is to see if large volumes of capital move daily among a growing number of users.
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