According to analysis by CryptoSlate analyst James Straten, Bitcoin price is on the verge of a 25% decline. Prediction based on SLRV Ratio is back to FTX crash levels.
SLRV Rate points to $23,000 for Bitcoin
As analyst James Straten noted on September 5, the SLRV Rate has “turned around” for the first time since November 2022. The previous change came on August 13, before the Bitcoin price bottomed at $25,000. Prior to this, it had been neutral since November 2022, when FTX went bankrupt.
Developed by renowned analyst David Puell and ARK Invest, SLRV uses the popular HODL Waves metric to track the speed of Bitcoin on the Blockchain. HODL Waves divides the circulating BTC supply according to the age of the cryptocurrencies used in transactions. SLRV takes coins that have previously moved within the last 24 hours and divides them by those that have previously moved six to 12 months ago. According to Straten’s analysis, the SLRV Ratio has now reversed again.
SLRV ribbons inverted on August 13, three days before #Bitcoin drops to $25k. Last time the metric inverted was just before the FTX collapse.
The SLRV Ratio shows the percentage of #Bitcoin in existence, that was last moved within 24 hours, divided by the percentage that was… pic.twitter.com/hHsfjINo45
— James V. Straten (@jimmyvs24) September 5, 2023
The metric also includes two moving averages (30-day and 150-day trend lines). Transitions between these coincide with important Bitcoin price events. For example, just before the FTX crash, the 150-day line crossed the 30-day line. At the same time, in mid-August, this event was repeated for the first time since then. According to Staten’s analysis:
SLRV bands reversed on August 13, three days before Bitcoin crashed to $25,000. The last time the metric reversed was just before the FTX crash.
Bitcoin investors are switching to abstaining mode
At the same time, previous analyzes focused closely on the behavior of Bitcoin investor groups. Short-term investors build a strong support wall to keep the price stable. But lately this has not been the case. Previously, short-term investors appeared to provide price support based on their share of the BTC supply balancing the total price.
The short-term ownership cost basis is currently above the spot price, as speculators have reportedly been selling at large losses since late August. Data from CryptoQuant shows the price at which various cryptocurrencies were last moved.
Despite sharp bearish warnings for Bitcoin, most analysts continue to keep the bar high. As reported by Kriptokoin.com, the halving, which will coincide with April 2024, is the main catalyst pointed out by analysts.
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