According to Adrian Zdunczyk, founder of The Birb Nest, Bitcoin is in an undeniably bull market. Other Bitcoin analysts say that the risk of a “terrible bearish trend” determines the weekly close, but that all may not be lost.
Bitcoin is in an undeniable bull trend!
According to Adrian Zdunczyk, Bitcoin is in an undeniably bullish market. In a Twitter thread, Adrian offers many reasons why he believes the Bitcoin market will continue with its newly discovered uptrend.
https://twitter.com/crypto_birb/status/1649947127148060673
According to Adrian, it is better to rely on existing facts that have been going on for decades when trading financial markets. Therefore, the analyst bases his analysis on facts about historical market behavior. Adrian states that financial markets have performed best in the pre-election years with only one exception in the last 84 years. In the light of these data, the probability of the market to be in an upward trend in 2023 is 98.8%.
Adrian, with a screenshot, says that Bitcoin is in an uptrend and investors should approach using John R. Hill & George Pruitt’s advice. The analyst uses the 200-day moving average to predict that Bitcoin is in a dominant bull trend and investors should consider it. He backs up his claim by using a pictorial representation of the psychology of the Bitcoin cycle. He also notes that traders who are still shorting Bitcoin may be experiencing cognitive dissonance of the early stages of a reversal.
In the current market conditions, the analyst identifies the $26,500-$27,000 Bitcoin price level as an area of interest for buyers. This is the last zone dominated by bulls. According to Adrian, repetition, regret and representation biases can encourage traders to use the intuitive ‘rule of thumb’ and buy support.
Weekly chart risks ‘bear trend’
BTC, which has risen by about 2.5% from the lows set the previous day, remains on the radar of investors as a potential short opportunity towards the weekly close. Crypto Tony told his Twitter followers on April 23, “My short target right now is $26,600 and it may take a little longer to get there as it’s the weekend. This is the most logical goal and there are offers out there right now. So I’m waiting for a reaction after it’s been tested,” he says.
BTC caption chart / Source: Crypto Tony/TwitterThis target will mean a new low for BTC, which has lost 10% over the week, turning April’s performance into a negative overall.
Analyst Mark Cullen assesses the potential for BTC to approach $27,310, the April 21 CME futures closing price before the weekly close. The analyst offers a similar target to Crypto Tony, saying, “There are a lot of offers at the level of 26.5k, but I am not sure that these offers will be reached yet.”
BTC caption chart / Source: Mark Cullen/TwitterIn another tweet, the analyst states that spot market sales are increasing on Binance, the largest exchange, which could put downward pressure on an illiquid weekend trading environment.
GM #Crypto!
Looks like the @binance spot selling is still trying to push price lower. They took a break as markets closed on Friday, but the algos seem to be kicking back in. pic.twitter.com/VQCROCYOnU
— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) April 23, 2023
The ‘terrible bear trend’ for Bitcoin is approaching
Market participants seem to share the same consensus on BTC price movements more broadly. They also suggest that short-term bearish moves are not yet amenable to changing the overall uptrend for 2023. Among them is Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, and likewise the popular analyst shares bearish targets. Saying that the weekly chart is still on the path to push a higher low (HL), thus maintaining the uptrend, the analyst says, “I can’t see the full bearish perspective,” pointing out the following levels:
We are looking for an HL that appears to be a possible case around $26,500-27,000 (maybe $25,000) on the weekly timeframe. A break above $27,800 will likely mean a strong upside reaction and continuation of the uptrend for BTC towards $29,000.
BTC 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp) / Source: TradingViewPopular trader CryptoBullet looks more nervous, even as he admits that a weekly candle that overshadows one-month progress won’t spell the end of his bull run.
Even if we close the weekly candle as a horrendous Bearish Engulfing, it’s not over yet
Let me remind you what we had back in 2019 during the same Echo Bubble rally:
1 – Bear Market Low
2 – First Bounce
3 – Higher Low
4 – Weeks of sideways consolidation after… pic.twitter.com/MI4yYTAKBe— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) April 22, 2023
Bitcoin gears up for a ‘strong bull run’
As you follow on Kriptokoin.com, Bitcoin’s downward price action seems to have stopped as BTC aims to establish a solid foundation above the $27,000 level. This came just days after gains above the $30,000 level failed to sustain.
Despite the setback, crypto analyst alias El_crypto_prof suggests that the losses may be short-lived. According to the analyst, historical data points to a potential bull run for BTC after what he calls the end of smart money accumulation, marked by the Quantitative Qualitative Forecast (QQE) rising above zero. In this context, the analyst makes the following statement:
Smart money’s business of accumulating BTC is over. I told you a few weeks ago that when QQE >0 = Accumulation ends. We’ve always seen a strong bull run afterwards <…> And the bears are happy with a few red candles.
Bitcoin price analysis chart / Source: TradingViewMcGlone remains bullish on BTC over the long term
Meanwhile, Bloomberg senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone predicts that Bitcoin will likely experience a short-term pullback after falling below $30,000. However, it remains bullish for the long-term outlook.
Bitcoin’s last correction came shortly after the asset broke the $30,000 mark for the first time in nearly 10 months. This increase has been attributed to Bitcoin benefiting from the US banking sector crisis and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation. The correction saw Bitcoin lead the broader market in short-term losses, in part in response to higher UK inflation data. This development triggered concerns about higher-longer interest rates that contributed to the sell-off in Bitcoin and other risky assets.
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