At the meeting on September 20, the Fed kept interest rates constant. However, Vanguard, one of the leading investment consultants in the USA, says that the central bank will have to increase interest rates 3 more times by the end of 2024. Analysts predict that the Bitcoin price will take a hit in such a situation.
Bitcoin warning from Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone: Interest rates are the biggest obstacle
Senior Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone warns about Bitcoin’s price trajectory. McGlone notes that Bitcoin has historically thrived during a period of low interest rates and is now entering a period of rising interest rates.
Risky markets like cryptocurrencies often fall at high interest rates. Bitcoin is one of these risky assets. McGlone points out that the Fed continues its tightening policy. According to the analyst, this means that Bitcoin could fall below $ 25,000. According to McGlone, the pump in Bitcoin’s price was excessive and there has been a turnaround this year.
McGlone also says the following about the future of Bitcoin:
The increase in Bitcoin price was extreme. We’ve seen this on Amazon [the online retailer’s stock]. We’ve seen this across all risky assets and I think it will still be a leading indicator. I think at some point this will reverse and trade more like gold and treasury bonds… we have had a recovery this year and it is starting to turn around.
Rekt Capital: Can Bitcoin rewrite history?
Elsewhere, popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital said Bitcoin could fall to $20,000 this year if BTC repeats the pattern seen in 2015 and 2019, the two years before the halving. The analyst, who has similar expectations to McGlone, emphasizes the levels indicated by historical data:
BTC: 2015, 2019 and maybe even 2023? Bitcoin has a history of revisiting the macro high low price (blue circle) level in the pre-halving period.
Rekt Capital also says that another indication that Bitcoin could retest the $20,000 level is that there is a gap in this range created by transactions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). According to their analysis:
If Bitcoin continues to establish lower prices, could BTC fill the CME gap at ~$20,000 later this year or early 2024? If so, Bitcoin may finally revisit the macro higher low this cycle (blue circle).
“We can see $21,000”
The analyst also says that another indicator where Bitcoin could fall is the 50-week EMA. If BTC falls below this level, we can see these levels according to the analyst:
The last time BTC rejected from the 50-week EMA (purple) BTC retreated -20%. If history repeats itself and BTC rejects -20% from here, the price will drop to the ~$21,000 area (green). This is where the daily CME difference (orange) is.
However, the analyst still claims that Bitcoin could reach $31,000 if it breaks the critical resistance. However, if the resistance is not broken, the price will visit the supports near the $20,000 level. In bullish predictions, $65,000 is expected after the “halving” event that will take place in 2024. However, it is possible to see fluctuations in Bitcoin before the halving. After the halving, the price is likely to increase. According to the analyst:
If the 2023 high is $31,000, the next time we will see these prices will be months after the halving (red box). The only difference between now and then? In this pre-halving period, BTC may still bounce back from here. However, after the halving, BTC will rise much higher than current prices.
As reported by Kriptokoin.com, other analysts are positive about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. The leading crypto is currently spending time around $26,700.
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