Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above $19,000 one day after falling to a three-month low. A number of technical indicators show that the Bitcoin price has ended its dominant bearish cycle.
Bitcoin struggles after falling below $20,000
On the daily chart, BTC price surged from $18,255 to $19,650. This 7.5% price increase reflects similar recovery movements witnessed in the stock market. In addition, as you follow on Kriptokoin.com, the focus of investors is the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 20-21. This shows that investors have reached a consensus with another significant rate hike they expected.
BTC daily price chart against ACWI and Nasdaq / Source: TradingView
However, there are differing opinions on the longevity of Bitcoin’s rebound. Independent market analyst Jonny Moe emphasizes that BTC’s continued price action is similar to the sideways consolidation movements earlier this year. In other words, the current price of Bitcoin recovering around $20,000 does not constitute a long-term bullish situation.
— Jonny Moe (@JonnyMoeTrades) September 6, 2022
Former Fox News executive Rudy Takala points to worsening economic conditions globally. In this regard, he warns crypto investors to prepare for more ‘dark times’. On the other hand, some analysts believe that Bitcoin is looking at a strong uptrend in the coming times. Let’s take a closer look at three optimistic market outlooks.
Bitcoin prints ‘bull hammer’
According to trader alias Tardigrade, Bitcoin’s September 20 candlestick is a ‘bullish hammer’, indicating that the downside momentum is weakening. A ‘bullish hammer candle’ occurs when the asset drops significantly from its opening value, but returns to a level close to the same level. Traders see it as an attractive, bearish sign, given the history of previous market bottoms.
Trader Tardigrade applies the same theory to Bitcoin’s September 20 recovery. In this context, he says, the bull attractor will likely lead to a reversal.
https://twitter.com/TATrader_Alan/status/1572022282696134663
Pi-Cycle low point
Another technical signal predicting a sharp recovery for Bitcoin is the Pi-Cycle bottom. The open source indicator specifically tracks two long-term simple moving averages (SMA). These are the 471-day SMA and the 150-day EMA. History shows that Bitcoin price bottomed out for the market cycle when the 150-day SMA fell below the 471-day SMA.
Meanwhile, the price is making a strong bullish reversal in the days leading up to and after the 150-day SMA to close above the 471-day SMA. Analyst nicknamed Titan of Crypto highlights that Bitcoin is following 150-471 SMA bull crosses by 2023
BTC weekly price chart with Pi-Cycle Bottom / Source: Titan of CryptoAnalyst, “1. The cross occurred in July,” he adds. He also notes that the 2nd Cross has yet to happen. Therefore, he says, the turnaround may be closer than he thinks.
Wyckoff Cycle
Aurelien Ohayon, CEO of investment strategy firm XOR Strategy, suggests that BTC follows the popular Wyckoff Cycle pattern. In this context, he expects Bitcoin to reach $45,000 by early 2023.
A Wyckoff Cycle has four phases. These are: accumulation, markup, distribution and discount. After the discount phase, the cycle repeats with the accumulation phase, as Ohayon points out, as with Bitcoin’s continued price recovery.
BTC shown in Wyckoff Cycle stages / Source: XorStrategyThe analyst concludes by saying, “Bitcoin is entering the Final Rising Phase of the Wyckoff Cycle.”
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