One of the ‘biggest’ Bitcoin metrics says the BTC price bull run is here. On-chain analyst Philip Swift says set aside short-term BTC price weakness to focus on the larger investment trend.
History repeats itself for Bitcoin!
Bitcoin is entering a new bull run-like “speculation cycle,” according to a new analysis. Philip Swift, creator of data source LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, revealed in a tweet on May 16 that history repeats itself according to the RHODL Ratio metric.
The RHODL Ratio is a method of tracking BTC price behavior based on the actual price of the supply. Philip Swift created this rate in 2020. The metric compares the relative ages of coins that moved a week ago with those that moved 1 to 2 years ago. This ratio gives an idea of the relative activity of short-term (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) and, accordingly, the extent of speculation in the market.
RHODL Ratiocreator on Bitcoin price: “Go away!”
Currently, RHODL continues to rise, reaching the green accumulation zone at the end of 2022. Swift said that at the time, Bitcoin was at its “maximum opportunity point.” And that has been true ever since. In this direction, as you follow on Kriptokoin.com, BTC gained 70% in the first quarter of 2023. Prior to that, its descent towards this point coincided with Bitcoin’s plunge to macro lows. Now, with the increase in speculative activity, he believes that a new bull cycle has already begun. In this context, Swift makes the following statement:
I created the Bitcoin RHODL Ratio indicator in 2020. At the time, one of the things that impressed me was that when the rate value of younger coins started to increase… it showed how a new bull run was formed. This is where we are right now. Don’t panic about minor price pullbacks. Get away from this!
Bitcoin RHODL Ratio annotated chart / Source: Philip Swift / TwitterSwift is not alone in this view. Glassnode chief on-chain analyst Checkmate describes the RHODL Ratio as “one of the biggest on-chain findings.” Meanwhile, an accompanying chart shows a burst peak of the 2021 bull market for BTC. Despite this, Swift adds that she doesn’t see any imitation moves for RHODL. The metric last hit the red “high speculation” zone at Bitcoin’s all-time high in late 2017.
Bitcoin RHODL Ratio chart / Source: LookIntoBitcoinFear, depression and lack of interest…
Philip Swift goes on to say that in short timeframes, market participants stay risk-averse in crypto markets. The result followed a scan of funding rates on exchanges, with a series of “bearish” ratings that DecenTrader created for Bitcoin. These were related to open interest and long/short rate in addition to funding rates.
Market data for various major cryptocurrencies / Source: DecenTrader“The market is still fearful/depressed/disinterested…” Philip Swif summed up that day. Earlier this month, Swift gave an updated forecast of what could happen to Bitcoin in the last year before the next block subsidy halving. Among other possibilities, a return to $20,000 is out of the question.
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