Major altcoins like Bitcoin (BTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are holding on to current support levels, but comments from the Fed this week could be a determining factor in short-term price action.
What awaits major altcoins like Bitcoin and Dogecoin this week?
US stock markets opened on a tentative note on May 2, however, it stands out as a positive point as Bitcoin-led crypto markets remain above key support levels. Price action over the next few days will be determined by the result of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) on May 4. If the FED gives a negative surprise, markets may react to the downside. On the other hand, stock and crypto markets could attempt a recovery if the policy meets market expectations.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could witness a big move in May. According to data from crypto analytics platform Coinglass, Bitcoin has risen more than 50 percent in May, twice in the past nine years, once in 2019 and another in 2017. By contrast, the worst drop was in 2021, when Bitcoin dropped more than 35 percent. Can major altcoins like Bitcoin and Dogecoin sustain the recovery? What are the key levels to consider? As Kriptokoin.com, we convey analyst opinions and price analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)
Bitcoin bounced off the support line of the ascending channel on May 1, indicating that the bulls are buying dips to this level. Buyers will now try to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($39,824). If they do, it suggests the bears may be losing control. The positive divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) also indicates that the bearish momentum may be decreasing. Above the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($41,970). A break and close above this level could open the way for a rally to the 200-day SMA ($47,154). Conversely, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA once again, it will show that the bears continue to sell on every minor rally. This could increase the likelihood of a break below the channel. If this happens, the selling momentum could increase and the pair could drop to $34,300 and then to $32,917.
Ethereum (ETH) started to recover on May 1, but the bears are not in a position to give up their advantage. The long wick on the May 2 candlestick indicates that the bears continue to sell near the 20-day EMA ($2,939). The bears will now try to push the price down to the bullish line. This is an important level to consider because a break and close below it could open the way for a possible drop to the next support at $2,450. Conversely, if the price rises from the current level or bounces back from the bullish line, it will indicate that the bulls are trying to keep the ascending triangle pattern intact. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($3,059) could open the doors for a possible upward move to the 200-day SMA ($3,451).
BNB and Solana (SOL)
BNB bounced back from the 50-day SMA ($411) on April 29 and broke below the support at $391 on April 30. Buyers tried to push the price above $391 on May 1, but are facing selling higher. If the price drops from the current level or the 20-day EMA ($401), it will indicate that the sentiment will remain negative and traders are selling close to the overhead resistance levels. This could pave the way for a possible drop to the strong support at $350. This negative view could be invalidated in the short term if the bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA and sustain it. If they do, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $431 and then attempt to rise to the 200-day SMA ($469).
Solana (SOL) broke below the support line of the ascending channel on April 29 and invalidated the pattern. The sale continued on April 30 and the price dropped to $82. Buyers tried to push the price back into the channel on May 1, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick indicates that the bears are selling higher. If the price fails to bounce back into the channel, the SOL/USDT pair could decline to strong support at $75. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because failing to do so could restart the downtrend. On the upside, a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($103) will indicate that the bears may be losing control.
Ripple (XRP) and Terra (LUNA)
Ripple (XRP) broke below the $0.62 support on April 29 and the bears extended the decline to $0.56 on April 30 . Price rallied on May 1, showing buying at lower levels. The bulls are currently trying to push the price above the breakout level at $0.62. If successful, the recovery could reach the 20-day EMA ($0.68). This is an important level to consider because if the price drops below this level, it will indicate that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair could decline to strong support at $0.55 later. A break below this support could open the doors for a decline to $0.50. Alternatively, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.76). Such a move would indicate that the XRP/USDT pair could consolidate in a wide range between $0.55 and $0.91 in the near future.
Terra (LUNA) bounced off strong support at $75 on May 1, showing that the bulls are trying to defend this level. However, the bears are unlikely to surrender easily as they will try to stop the recovery at the downtrend line. If the price turns down from the downtrend line, the bears will make another attempt to push the LUNA/USDT pair below $75. If successful, the pair could complete a bearish “shoulders head” pattern. The bulls will try to stop the dip at the 200-day SMA ($70), but if this support is broken, selling could pick up momentum and the pair could drop as low as $50. Conversely, a break and close above the downtrend line could indicate that the bears may be losing control. This could open the way for a possible rise to psychological resistance at $100.
Cardano (ADA) and Dogecoin (DOGE)
Cardano (ADA) dropped to strong support at $0.74 on April 30, signaling that the bears are in control. Price reclaimed May 1 support but bulls are struggling to sustain higher levels. This shows that the bears are selling on every minor rally. The bears will now attempt to push and sustain the price below the strong support at $0.74. If they succeed, the selling could accelerate and the ADA/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The next downside support where buying could emerge is at $0.68. Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks out of the current level or returns to $0.74, the bulls will try to push the pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.87). If this happens, the pair could try to move higher to $1.
Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below the 50-day SMA ($0.13) on April 29, but the bears failed to challenge the strong support at $0.12. This shows that Dogecoin bulls continue to buy from lower levels. Buyers tried to push the price above the 50-day SMA on May 1, but the bears were not willing to give up. This indicates that the Dogecoin/USDT pair could oscillate between the 20-day EMA ($0.13) and $0.12 for a few days. If the bears sink the price below $0.12, Dogecoin price could drop to the psychological support at $0.10. The bulls are expected to defend this level strongly. Alternatively, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the probability of a rally to $0.17 increases.
Avalanche (AVAX) and Polkadot (DOT)
Avalanche (AVAX) dropped below strong support at $65 on April 29, followed by another downside move on April 30. Buyers started to recover on May 1 and are currently trying to pull the price back above the breakout level at $65. Sellers will try to turn the $65 level into resistance. If they do, the AVAX/USDT pair could extend the decline to strong support at $51. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it and closing could intensify the sale. The pair could then continue the downtrend and drop to the next major support at $32. Conversely, if the bulls push the price above $65, the pair could rally to the 20-day EMA ($70). A break and close above this level indicates that selling pressure may decrease. This could hold the pair between $51 and $99 for a while.
Polkadot (DOT) dropped below the $16 support on April 30 and reached the critical support at $14. The price bounce from $14 on May 1 indicates that it has been bought by the bulls. The recovery faces selling at the $16 breakout level as the bears try to turn the previous support into resistance. If the price fails to rise above $16, the probability of a drop below $14 increases. If this happens, the DOT/USDT pair could continue its decline and drop to the psychological level at $10. To invalidate this view, the bulls will need to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($17). If they do, the pair could rise to $19, where the bears could pose a strong challenge again.
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