The countdown has begun for the US elections. Bernstein analysts expect a short-term impact on market sentiment as Donald Trump is seen as the pro-crypto candidate compared to Kamala Harris’ relatively hawkish crypto stance. In this context, Bernstein announced his predictions for Bitcoin based on the candidates’ victory. However, it predicts a price of $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the election outcome.
Bitcoin predictions based on US election results
As you follow from Kriptokoin.com, the crypto market is focused on the US elections. The crypto world sees Republican Donald Trump as the pro-crypto candidate compared to Kamala Harris’ potential continuation of the Democrats’ hawkish crypto stance of the last four years. But the party has shown a marked change in tone over the past few months.
Bernstein analysts claim victory is not priced in for either candidate. Analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $80,000 to $90,000 after Trump’s win. However, they predict that if Harris wins, BTC will drop to $50,000 before recovering in the same period. Thus, analysts are pushing up the $30,000 to $40,000 range they had previously predicted in this scenario.
Bitcoin’s key drivers and year-end 2025 price target
Analysts say the main drivers of Bitcoin are US fiscal indiscipline, record debts and quantitative easing. They state that this increases the demand for tangible assets. They also note that the success of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has further accelerated this trend with ample headroom for growth. In this context, analysts underline the following points:
The Bitcoin genie is out of the bottle and it is difficult to reverse this trend. Regardless of the election results, our BTC price target for the end of 2025 remains at $200,000.
Polymarket rates are converging
Amid the weekend Polymarket rates convergence, Gautam Chhugani warns of short-term volatility in both directions depending on who ends up in the Oval Office. Selzer’s Iowa poll was 3% in favor of the Democratic candidate. After that, Trump’s advantage over Harris at Polymarket narrowed to around 11%, down from a 33% lead on October 30. Trump currently leads Harris 57.9% to 42.1% to win the presidential race on the decentralized prediction platform. This result makes it by far the largest prediction market, with a trading volume of $3.1 billion.
The margin on the Kalshi platform is 54% to 46% in Trump’s favor. Meanwhile, it was nearly level at one point on Sunday. However, analysts say national poll averages remain close to each other. They also note that Harris has a 1% lead within the margin of error. Chhugani comments:
To anyone suggesting that Polymarket data was manipulated by Trump bias, we believe we have enough evidence to suggest that it behaved like any other public market over the weekend and that it was easy for traders to be spooked by rising poll data.
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